McKeany-Flavell Hot Commodity Podcast Series
COVID challenges with Taffy Town & Capol

COVID challenges with Taffy Town & Capol

January 28, 2022
  • COVID challenges in the food industry
    • Derek Glade (Taffy Town) and AJ Khoury (Capol)
  • Western Candy Conference!
  • Registration is now open for our Spring Market Seminar 2022!
    • Wednesday, April 27, Oakbrook, IL
    • Register to attend in person or virtually—your choice!
    • Register here!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Guest: Derek Glade, VP Sales & Marketing, Taffy Town
Guest: AJ Khoury, Technical Dir. of Sales, Capol

Tightness in wet milled products is on the menu for 2022

Tightness in wet milled products is on the menu for 2022

January 21, 2022
  • Drier capacity remains an issue for N.A. starch and dextrose
  • Alternative grind uses pulling attention of wet millers away from traditional products
  • Get your orders in with extended lead times!
  • For deeper insights purchase our updated study, U.S. Corn Wet Milling Industry: 2021 Edition
  • Registration is open for our Spring Market Seminar 2022!
    • Wednesday, April 27, Oakbrook, IL
    • Register to attend in-person or virtually—your choice!
    • Register here!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist

 

Another stop at Inflation Station! All aboard!

Another stop at Inflation Station! All aboard!

January 14, 2022
  • CPI 7.0%
    • Near 40-year high
  • PPI 9.7%
    • Highest since records began in 2010
  • O/N Fed funds target rate
    • 00-0.25%
  • The funds to CPI correlation suggests the Fed is well behind in raising rates
  • Commodity and U.S. dollar reaction?
    • Contingent on how fast other central banks move their own benchmark rates

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Risk Management

 

January WASDE update & the Grain Stocks reports

January WASDE update & the Grain Stocks reports

January 12, 2022
  • Corn
    • Ending stocks up with slight increase in STU
    • Ethanol use up
  • Soy complex
    • Changes to domestic balance sheet minor
    • Reasonably bullish factors within some categories
  • Wheat
    • U.S. stocks improve with export and feed demand revisions
    • Winter Wheat Seedlings report
      • Did we see an increase in acreage?
    • Sugar
      • More sugar for Louisiana
      • Expect adjustments in March
      • Some talk about 2023

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Eric Thornton, Commodity Specialist

Grains & sugar: Sizing up next week’s WASDE

Grains & sugar: Sizing up next week’s WASDE

January 7, 2022
  • Grains
    • Exports category should be lowered for all the grains
    • Will USDA factor in recent South American weather and lower production estimates?
    • Watch out for the quarterly grain stocks and winter wheat seedlings report
  • Sugar
    • Minor changes to sugar production for next week's WASDE?
    • Sugar market negotiations are quiet for now
    • Supply chain issues continue to be the challenge
  • Register now for our upcoming Cocoa Market Update webinar on Jan. 26!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Eric Thornton, Commodity Specialist

What the corn!? And other musings with Shawn & Eric

What the corn!? And other musings with Shawn & Eric

December 30, 2021
  • What the corn!? Why are we above $6?
  • Weather outlook in South America
  • Specs add over 50,000 longs to corn positions in last three weeks
  • Soybeans see biggest single week of buying in over a year
  • Managed money traders still selling soybean oil
  • Wheat interest mostly liquidations with a neutral bias
  • Happy New Year!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Eric Thornton, Commodity Specialist
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Risk Management

 

2022 market predictions: Part 2

2022 market predictions: Part 2

December 22, 2021
  • Dairy
    • Steep herd declines in 2021 have helped support and drive prices higher 
    • Will that trend continue in 2022 or will herd bounce back?
  • Cocoa
    • Grind expanded around the globe at an annual rate of 3.4% during 2021; can that trend continue?
    • As we near the halfway point in the main crop season, arrivals are lagging
    • Concerns are increasing for a mounting deficit in the upcoming season
  • Energy
    • Crude oil prices advanced from $47 to $70/barrel over the past year
    • Inflation and rising interest rate environment set the stage as we move into 2022
    • Will Omicron derail OPEC+ plans to expand output at these elevated prices?

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Jeffrey Rasinski, Consultant

 

Our 2022 predictions are in!

Our 2022 predictions are in!

December 17, 2021
  • Wheat
    • Total yield improves to 48-50 bushels per acre
    • Ending stocks improve to over 583 million bushels
  • CBD
    • More states legalize CBD for food use
  • Economy
    • Covid finally fades from the economic landscape
    • Inflation forces the Fed to raise rates more than 75bp
    • S&P 500 ends lower than it begins
  • Corn and soybean oil
    • More volatility
    • Tight commercial markets through FH 2022
  • Sugar
    • World #11 price ranges $0.18 - $0.22 on lower Indian exports
    • Domestic production repeats itself in 2022, beet over 5.0 million
    • Domestic #16 raw sugar stays above $0.34 per lb
  • Happy Holidays!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Eric Thornton, Commodity Specialist
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Risk Management
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist

 

December WASDE: Silly, sleepy USDA

December WASDE: Silly, sleepy USDA

December 9, 2021
  • Corn and soybean complex
    • Domestic corn and soy unchanged
    • Stronger yield for soybean oil
    • Lower global soybean ending stocks
  • Wheat
    • U.S. and global balance sheets improve slightly
    • Record Australian crop at 34 MMT
  • Sugar
    • Beet and cane production lowered 20,000 and 72,000 STRV, respectively
    • Mexican imports lowered despite recent additional 150,000 MT quota
  • Don’t forget to register now for our Hot Ingredients webinar on Dec. 15!
    • In-depth dive into honey, nuts, and oats

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Eric Thornton, Commodity Specialist
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Sweeteners Specialist

 

Sugar, sugar, & more sugar

Sugar, sugar, & more sugar

December 3, 2021

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Sweeteners Specialist

 

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