McKeany-Flavell Hot Commodity Podcast

“Strait” talk on inflation & hot topics in grains

• Wheat rallying off Black Sea export constraints
  • Will we re-test the early May highs?
• Inflation cools and consumer sentiment climbs, but for how long?
• Iran threatens to close another strait connecting the Red Sea, potentially shutting in more crude oil
• Index funds retreated in June from record levels
  • Could buying reignite if crude prices remain elevated?
• Don’t miss our next live webinar!
  • Behind the Packaging Price: What Resin Markets Are Telling Buyers Right Now
  • With special guest, Michael Workman, Executive Director at RTi Global/ResinSmart
  • Clients, check your inbox. Everyone else can register by going to mckeany-flavell.com

Host/Expert: Eric Thornton, Vice President
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management

July WASDE: No fireworks but markets still excited

• Corn & soy complex
  • U.S. corn ending stocks growing tighter for 2026/27
  • Less carry-in, more production, and more exports for U.S. soybeans
  • Soybean oil balance sheet unchanged but external factors carrying more weight with prices
• Wheat
  • U.S. wheat ending stocks decline further by 22 million bushels
  • Wheat crop in the U.S. projected smallest since 1970 at 1.536 million bushels
  • Thankfully, weaker U.S. demand is keeping stocks-to-use ratio declines in check
• Sugar
  • Beet forecasts lower due to crop development and weather concerns
  • Mexico’s baseline imports set
  • Food deliveries set little higher than expected

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Eric Thornton, Vice President
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services

The impact on sugar of U.S. declining to renew the USMCA

• USMCA trade pact update: The details
• How will it impact Suspension Agreements?
• Will Mexico target HFCS imports?

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist

 

Current spring row crop conditions: How we lookin’, are we cookin'?

• How are things looking for sugar, spring wheat, corn, and soybeans?
  • Record potentials?
  • Looming threats?
  • Heatwaves in the U.S. and France are coming: How concerning are they?
• Acreage and stock expectations for next Tuesday’s reports
  • More corn?
• Not a client on McKeany-Flavell’s IQ Intelligence Platform? Visit mckeany-flavell.com to learn more!
  • Commodity dashboards
  • Dynamic data & interactive charts
  • Analytics & calculators
  • Price forecasts
  • Downloadable data, charts, and tables

Host: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist
Expert: Eric Thornton, Vice President

A seminal shake-up at the FOMC!

• Exiting forward guidance
• Five new tasks forces to help steer policy
• Hawkish tone in general
• A commitment to deliver price stability
• Next week, don’t miss our Live Seasonal Market Outlook webinar!
  • Wed., June 24, 2026 at 2pm ET / 11am PT
  • Clients, invites are going out now, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management

June WASDE: All quiet on the WASDE front, mostly

• Corn & soy complex
  • U.S. corn crop looks great so far, much to be determined regarding global production for 2026/27
  • Bio-based diesel consumption of vegetable oil indicated as strong domestically and globally.
• Wheat
  • Small crops get smaller…. Hard Red winter wheat lowered another 18 million bushels
  • Stocks down 20% YOY at now 744 million bushels
  • Spring wheat crop conditions are excellent: could help increase the all-wheat yield in the future
• Sugar
  • US sugar production increase was the headline: up +253,000 short tons
  • USDA decided to increase food demand by +126,000 tons; is it real demand?
  • Stocks to use improved from 13.5 to 14.3 percent = adequately balanced
• Live Seasonal Market Outlook Webinar
  • Wed., June 24, 2026 at 2pm ET / 11am PT
  • Sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Shawn Bingham, CAIA, Director of Risk Management
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Eric Thornton, Vice President

Corn sweeteners outlook for 2027

• Corn crop in the ground on time
  • Will it lose acres to soybeans?
• Entering a high-demand period
  • Will the upcoming World Cup provide a spike in HFCS use?
• Next week: Ingredion must announce its intention to make a formal bid for Tate & Lyle
• Our next webinar: Seasonal Market Outlook
  • Wed., June 24, 2026 at 2pm ET / 11am PT
  • Invites rolling out soon!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist

The Grim Reaper speaks! (on soybean & palm oil markets)

• Looking toward the “futures” and determining “good value”
  • Soybean oil futures market evolution since the start of the Iran war
    • What happened in deferred contracts?
• Is palm oil next?
  • Comparing the last strong El Niño event against an impending one
  • A look at pricing dynamics for Malaysian palm oil futures (BMD exchange)
• Not a client on McKeany-Flavell’s IQ Intelligence Platform? Visit iq.mckeany-flavell.com to learn more!
  • Commodity dashboards
  • Dynamic data & interactive charts
  • Analytics & calculators
  • Price forecasts
  • Downloadable data, charts, and tables
• Our next webinar: Seasonal Market Outlook
  • Wed., Jun 24, 2026 at 2pm ET / 11am PT

  • Invites rolling out soon!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services

 

Sugar planting progress updates + LIVE from the Sweets & Snacks Expo!

• Sugar
  • Beet crop progress is a mixed bag but still optimistic for a good crop
  • Cane production appears to be progressing well despite winter freeze
• Sweets & Snacks Expo
  • Who attended this year?
  • Flavors and promotions seen on the floor
    • Nostalgic brands and lots of sour!
  • What was Mike’s favorite candy?
• Save the date for our next webinar!
  • Seasonal Market Outlook
  • Wed., June 24, 2026 at 2pm ET / 11am PT
  • Invites rolling out soon!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist

Current factors impacting the cocoa & chocolate market

• Forecasted Super El Niño and its effect on cocoa
  • Expect dry conditions: Is it already occurring?
• High fertilizer prices and how they will impact 2026/27 production
• Chocolate manufacturers heeding the demand of consumers
  • What are some alternatives for cocoa content?
• Don’t miss next week’s webinar!
  • Wheat Market Update
  • Wed., May 20, 2026 at 2pm ET / 11am PT
  • Clients, invites are going out now, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Marilyn Adutwum, Data Analyst