McKeany-Flavell Hot Commodity Podcast

• Sugar beet pre-pile harvest is underway
  • Do early signs look promising?
• Corn harvest is nearly upon us
  • Will yield concerns mute typical harvest pressure?
• Grains futures have become the story as we enter corn sweetener negotiations

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist

 

• Making sense of all that’s happening in the world
• Potential impact on commodity and ingredient markets in the months to come 
• What are the fundamentals saying?
• What’s happening geopolitically?
• How do equity, currency, and treasury markets potentially play into this?

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services

 

• Wheat prices continue to rise off concerns in the Black Sea
• Russia and Ukraine exchanging new attacks
  • Possible truce proposal this week?
• August flow of grains down ~75% so far for Russia
  • Real concerns, but for how long? And how impactful?

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Eric Thornton, Vice President

• Corn & soy complex
  • Oh boy! More U.S. corn production and less ending stocks (and lower yield?)
  • Wild Midwest weather and upside market bias
  • Soybean changes benign, but spillovers from other markets supporting soybeans/soybean products
• Wheat
  • Wheat takes a back seat with only limited changes in August WASDE
  • However, starting to see early signs appear from the Ukraine/Russian conflict and Black Sea constraints
• Sugar
  • Major changes for 2025/26 beet sugar
  • A surprise for 2026/27 beet estimate
  • Florida cane down more than expected

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Eric Thornton, Vice President
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist

• Section 301 tariffs are in place
• Congress/USTR continue work with USDA on increasing high-tier duties
• Beet sugar crop: more optimism than expected
  • Could the crop end up larger than USDA is reporting?
• Cane crop under attack from mealybug
  • Could this stunt cane growth and sugar content in both Florida and Louisiana?
• Congress optimistic to get a Farm Bill passed before mid-term elections

Host: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist

• Unforeseen improvement in sugar deliveries, up 2%
• Reduced sugar beet acreage, lower projected production
• Recalibration of imports, larger quota for Mexico reduces high-tier
• Sugar prices for 2027 have bottomed
• Did you miss our webinar on Wednesday?
  • Behind the Packaging Price with Nicole Thomas and special guest, Michael Workman, Executive Director at RTi Global/ResinSmart
  • Watch now on our IQ platform!
  • Not an IQ subscriber? Reach out to us to learn more!

Host: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management
Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist

• What’s driving edible oil markets currently (and potentially, in the months to come)?
• Any oilseed-specific concerns that could impact veg oil prices?
• How does an oil buyer address this degree of uncertainty/volatility?
• Next Wednesday, don’t miss our live webinar!
  • Behind the Packaging Price: What Resin Markets Are Telling Buyers Right Now
  • With special guest, Michael Workman, Executive Director at RTi Global/ResinSmart,
  • Clients, check your inbox. Everyone else can register by going to mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Eric Thornton, Vice President
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services

• Wheat rallying off Black Sea export constraints
  • Will we re-test the early May highs?
• Inflation cools and consumer sentiment climbs, but for how long?
• Iran threatens to close another strait connecting the Red Sea, potentially shutting in more crude oil
• Index funds retreated in June from record levels
  • Could buying reignite if crude prices remain elevated?
• Don’t miss our next live webinar!
  • Behind the Packaging Price: What Resin Markets Are Telling Buyers Right Now
  • With special guest, Michael Workman, Executive Director at RTi Global/ResinSmart
  • Clients, check your inbox. Everyone else can register by going to mckeany-flavell.com

Host/Expert: Eric Thornton, Vice President
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management

• Corn & soy complex
  • U.S. corn ending stocks growing tighter for 2026/27
  • Less carry-in, more production, and more exports for U.S. soybeans
  • Soybean oil balance sheet unchanged but external factors carrying more weight with prices
• Wheat
  • U.S. wheat ending stocks decline further by 22 million bushels
  • Wheat crop in the U.S. projected smallest since 1970 at 1.536 million bushels
  • Thankfully, weaker U.S. demand is keeping stocks-to-use ratio declines in check
• Sugar
  • Beet forecasts lower due to crop development and weather concerns
  • Mexico’s baseline imports set
  • Food deliveries set little higher than expected

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Eric Thornton, Vice President
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services

• USMCA trade pact update: The details
• How will it impact Suspension Agreements?
• Will Mexico target HFCS imports?

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist