McKeany-Flavell Hot Commodity Podcast

April WASDE & summer is approaching!

• Sugar
  • Higher sugar imports leads to offsetting higher deliveries
  • Stocks-to use ratio left unchanged
• Wheat
  • U.S. and wheat global stocks rise, leading to a neutral to bearish April WASDE
  • Expect more changes in the May WASDE to food and export demand, and new-crop 2026/27 first looks
• Corn & soy complex
  • U.S. corn balance sheet unchanged, global ending stocks improve
  • Soybean supplies remain adequate in the U.S., ample globally
  • More food use of soybean oil? What will be the real stocks level for U.S. soybean oil?
• Our next webinar: U.S. Economy Update Webinar
  • Wed., April 22, 2026 at 2pm ET / 11am PT
  • Clients, invites are going out now, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Eric Thornton, Vice President
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist

Weather & the jobs market

• Weather
  • Winter wheat relief ahead?
    • Potential for rains that are desperately needed
  • 65% of U.S. winter wheat in drought conditions: Highest since 2022
• Jobs
  • Headline jobs data beats expectations
  • Wage growth is easily outpacing inflation
  • Underlying long-term trends are still concerning
• Save the date for our next webinar!
  • Economy Update Webinar
  • Wed., April 22, 2026 at 2pm ET / 11am PT
  • Invites to be out soon

Host: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist
Expert: Eric Thornton, Vice President
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management

Taking the over or the under? USDA releases Grain Stocks & Prospective Plantings reports

• Corn & soy complex
  • Corn and soybean acres fall within acreage expectations, but what will the numbers actually look like by late June?
  • Stocks seem adequate for both corn and soybeans
    • The difference maker will be where those stocks reside
• Wheat
  • Not the best fundamental news for wheat buyers
    • All wheat acres forecasted at an all-time low of 43.8 million acres
  • 2026/27 production decline risk is very likely with fewer acres, and the hard red winter wheat crop is currently dealing with a weather issue
  • Ending stocks up 5%: Deficit risk in the long term?
• Sugar
  • Beet sugar area down 1.5%

Host/Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Eric Thornton, Vice President

 

Sugar: Mayhem is everywhere

• Forfeitures or no forfeitures is a big question
  • Nearly 1.0 billion lbs of sugar under loan in Idaho
  • Is that a real threat?
• March planting intentions coming out on Tuesday
  • What to expect: Slight decline compared to last year?
• Did you miss our Seasonal Market Outlook Webinar on Wednesday?
  • Watch now on our IQ platform!
  • Not an IQ subscriber? Reach out to us to learn more!

Host/Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist

Latest updates on weather, war, wheat, economy, & inflation

• W.W.W.
  • Weather + War + Wheat = volatility!
  • Current conditions for winter wheat are growing concerning
    • Some better hope for rain in April?
• W.E.I.
  • War + Energy + Inflation = economic chaos!
  • Iran waging economic war via energy
  • Inflation expectations are rising
  • Most Fed members now see the funds rate unchanged for 2026
  • Commodity buyers should be vigilant on near-term coverage
• Don’t miss our webinar next week!
  • Seasonal Market Outlook Webinar: Navigating the Opportunities & Risks Ahead
  • Wed., March 25, 2026 at 2pm ET / 11am PT
  • Clients, be on the lookout for your invite next week, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Eric Thornton, Vice President
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management

Energy update on a perfectly timed Friday the 13th

• Iran’s nuclear option is the Strait of Hormuz
• Emergency oil release reaction was muted
• Risk remains highly elevated
• Be proactive about adding soybean oil coverage
• Our next webinar is fast approaching!
  • Seasonal Market Outlook Webinar: Navigating the Opportunities & Risks Ahead
    Wed., March 25, 2026 at 2pm ET / 11am PT
  • Clients, be on the lookout for your invite next week, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com

Host/Expert: Eric Thornton, Vice President
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management

 

March WASDE: Few changes but pay attention

• Corn & soy complex
  • U.S. soy and corn balance sheets relatively unchanged
  • Interesting changes to U.S. soybean oil consumption
• Wheat
  • No changes in U.S. balance sheet
  • Should USDA have increased exports?
  • Attention shifting to new crop 2026/27 with 2025/26 set in stone
• Sugar
  • Florida cane production lowered from early February freeze
  • High-tier imports increased
• Our next webinar is fast approaching!
  • Seasonal Market Outlook Webinar: Navigating the Opportunities & Risks Ahead
  • Wed., March 25, 2026 at 2pm ET / 11am PT
  • Clients, be on the lookout for your invite next week, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Eric Thornton, Vice President
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist

 

Latest consumer trends weighing on the food & beverage space

• New MAHA food pyramid could lead to changing consumption
• GLP-1 and weight management drugs grow in usage
• What’s a food and/or beverage manufacturer to do in this environment?
• Save the date for our next webinar!
  • Seasonal Market Outlook Webinar: Navigating the Opportunities & Risks Ahead
  • Wed., March 25, 2026

  • Clients, be on the lookout for your invite next week, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Marilyn Adutwum, Data Analyst

Recap of the 2026 International Sweetener Colloquium

• Held in beautiful Championsgate, FL: How was the weather?
• Demand for sugar and sweeteners pressured from growing GLP-1 use and SNAP restrictions
• Tariffs are off and then back on again?
• 2027 negotiations appear to be in no hurry

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist

Market updates amid today's Supreme Court ruling

• Wheat
  • Wheat is worth watching now: futures rallying to six-month highs
  • Long-term bearish outlook still most likely
• Sugar
  • Sugar forfeiture risk and product reformulations will be two non-traditional drivers for the 2027 market
• Soy complex
  • Trade and profitability: soybean supply and consumption may hinge on those factors
  • Energy markets, be it biofuel or crude oil, soybean oil prices are at the mercy of energy markets, domestic politics, and the geopolitical environment 
• Corn
  • Corn acreage and consumption: lower YOY acreage (with likely good carry-in for 2026/27) against feed consumption now, ethanol consumption later

Host/Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Eric Thornton, Vice President