McKeany-Flavell Hot Commodity Podcast

Brrrr! It’s cold out there! Polar vortex hits the U.S.

• What impacts did we see from the harsh winter weather this week?
• Louisiana cane crop concerns
• Winter wheat threatened
• Rumors of peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine
• Next week! Don’t miss our Key Ingredients in 2025 webinar
  • Wednesday, January 29, 2025 at 11 am PT / 2 pm ET
  • Register now at mckeany-flavell.com or look for your invite starting next week

Host: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
Expert: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor

Jobs, inflation, & policy: No shortage of volatility!

• December jobs boost economic expectations
• December FOMC points to higher inflation and fewer rate cuts
• Policy decisions to ban future oil drilling and add new sanctions to Russia, along with threats from Canada, spike crude prices
• January WASDE bullish to grain market?
• No shortage of volatility ahead of next Monday’s Inauguration Day!
• Our next webinar: Key Ingredients in 2025
  • Wednesday, January 29, 2025 at 11 am PT / 2 pm ET
  • Register now at mckeany-flavell.com or if you’re a client, look for an invite in your inbox

Host: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management

January WASDE: Exciting, surprising, & revealing

• Corn and soy complex
  • USDA surprises with reduced U.S. production for corn, soybeans
  • Domestic soybean oil balance sheet is likely more ominous than ending stocks would indicate
• Wheat
  • Winter wheat acres on the rise! Up how much from 2024?
  • Grain stocks and WASDE about as expected
• Sugar
  • Beet production increased
  • A boost to stocks-to-use ratio
• Our next webinar: Key Ingredients in 2025
  • Wednesday, January 29, 2025 at 11 am PT / 2 pm ET
  • Register now at mckeany-flavell.com or look for your invite starting next week
• Our thoughts and prayers are with those affected by the LA fires

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist

School’s in session! Futures market speculators

• Commodity trading advisor (CTA) assets under management 
  • Down from 2022 peak but still significant
• Large CTAs trade as many as 250 futures contracts globally
  • Which category manages the majority of assets?
• Between January 2021 and February 2024, fund managers rode corn from record-long to record-short positions
  • How many contracts did they sell?
• How were speculators positioned in last year's soybean oil market?
• Lack of speculator liquidity likely helped fuel cocoa rally in 2024
• Mark your calendars for our next webinar! Not to be missed!
  • Key Ingredients in 2025
  • January 29, 2025 11am PT / 2pm ET
  • Registration opens soon at mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management

Looking down the road: Our predictions for 2025

• Corn
  • Corn acres will go up on better returns than soybeans
  • Feed demand may shrink due to continued issues of avian flu
  • Exports are being front-loaded but could stall in the second half
  • Could ending stocks equal 2024?
    
• Sugar
  • At what prices will sugar futures be trading in 2025?
  • Strong supplies and slightly lower demand in 2025 to pressure 2026 contracting, but by how much?
• Wheat
  • Ditto or status quo on 2025 vs. 2024?
  • What to expect from 2025/26 U.S. stocks surplus, as well as global stocks
  • Expectations for 2025/26 U.S. wheat exports
  • Two more countries will approve HB4 GMO wheat: Guesses as to who
• Soy complex & edible oils
  • Prevailing prediction: Volatility!
  • Uncertain biofuel and economic pictures provide a broad range of price possibilities
  • Does avian flu spreading to mammals fill more of the conversation in 2025?
• Economy & energy
  • Let’s talk basis cuts from the Fed
  • How will the CPI and GDP hold up?
  • Observations for WTI crude oil: What to expect
• Happy New Year!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
Expert: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management

A holiday poem, McKeany-Flavell style

Find a warm, cozy spot and listen to Nicole showcase her annual holiday poem, as only she can do. 

Happy Holidays!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services

Vibe check on the wheat market

• U.S. winter wheat crop conditions are strong heading into winter
  • Is La Niña still forecasted?
• Speculators may liquidate hefty short positions
• Russia/Ukraine war full of uncertainty and will enhance volatility
• What to expect from commodities in 2025?
  • Keep an eye out for our 2025 predictions podcast coming to you soon!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor

Ho ho holy December WASDE!

• Wheat
  • Wheat exports increase
  • Stocks fall
• Soy complex
  • Soybean balance sheet unchanged for U.S.
  • Global stocks still huge
• Corn
  • Production down globally
  • Stronger use for corn in the U.S.
  • How’s ethanol demand looking?
• Sugar
  • USDA raises import level: How disappointed will Mexico be?
  • Believe it or not, the International Sweetener Colloquium is right around the corner! (February 23-26, 2025): See you there!
• Keep an eye out for our 2025 predictions podcast! Coming to you soon.

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Specialist
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist

Winning in edible oils is all about the fundamentals!

• Market fundamentals
  • Global markets
    • European production issues for crops
  • Domestic markets
    • Latest crush report shows 10-year lows
• How likely are we to see sustained price relief for vegetable oils?
• The incoming U.S. administration spells lots of uncertainty
  • Biofuel policy, imports, tariffs, and even TikTok
• Used cooking oil and its effect on soybean oil usage in biofuels
• Interested in learning more about coconut oil products?
  • Head over to mckeany-flavell.com to watch our video, “Going Coconuts”!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services

Setting the table with turkey & corn...sweetener negotiations that is!

• Contracting is nearing its completion
  • Results are a mixed bag
  • Corn prices were not a factor
• Product demand assisted in price offers for 2025
• Wet mill operations show little change
  • New production at Ft. Dodge and Shenandoah
• U.S. Corn Wet Milling Industry Study, 2023 Edition!
  • What buyers, consumers, and investors need to know
  • Processes, products, pricing, and growth potential
  • Visit us at mckeany-flavell.com to purchase your copy today!
• Happy Thanksgiving!

Host: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management
Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist