McKeany-Flavell Hot Commodity Podcast

Unpacking the USDA Grain Stocks & Prospective Plantings reports

• Corn and soybeans
  • Corn, soybean acreage relatively in line with pre-report estimates
  • Less corn, soybeans in on-farm storage than last year
• Wheat
  • Second fewest planted wheat acres on record
  • Hard red spring wheat down how much?
  • Wheat stocks come in slightly bearish and above expectations
• Sugar
  • Beet planting area forecast to increase
  • Minnesota and North Dakota both up
• McKeany-Flavell’s 2025 Spring Market Seminar: Industry Trends & Consumption
  • Live online event! Free for all clients!
  • Wednesday, April 23, 2025
  • Have you registered? Visit mckeany-flavell.com to get it done!

Host/Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor

March Madness continues next week as USDA takes on Grain Stocks & Prospective Plantings!

• Market expects more corn acreage vs. soybeans, but just how much?
• Wheat acres could see a small increase vs. last year
• Wheat futures also reach fresh contract lows today: Great buying opportunity!
• Grain stocks may surprise more than the acreage report, so too could the Apr. 2 tariff deadline
• McKeany-Flavell’s 2025 Spring Market Seminar: Industry Trends & Consumption
  • Live online event! Free for all clients!
  • Wednesday, April 23, 2025
  • Visit mckeany-flavell.com to register today!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor

Predicting the unpredictable: Weather, wheat, & the economy

• Wheat
  • U.S. winter wheat crop has endured challenges
  • Will April rains be welcomed?
• Weather
  • La Niña expected to fade in the coming weeks
  • U.S. Midwest dealing with more drought and dryness headed into spring planting season
• Economy
  • Fed holds rates steady but eases via treasury holdings
  • FOMC lowers 2025 growth forecast and raises inflation forecast
  • With two opposite battles to find, will Chairman Powell likely choose slowing growth as the most eminent problem?
• Join us next Wednesday, March 26 for our Seasonal Market Outlook webinar!
  • Look out for your invite or sign up now on mckeany-flavell.com
• McKeany-Flavell’s 2025 Spring Market Seminar: Industry Trends & Consumption
  • Live online event! Free for all clients!
  • Wednesday, April 23, 2025
  • Visit mckeany-flavell.com to register today!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management

Needing some Irish luck: Inflation, consumers, & the economy

• Inflation, while elevated, is taking a back seat to tariff troubles
• Consumer sentiment and spending is declining, raising questions about future demand
• Wall Street and others are lowering their U.S. growth forecasts: Will this spread globally?
• Time to talk 2026 sugar with your suppliers
• May the Luck O’ the Irish be with you!
• Our next webinar: Seasonal Market Outlook
  • Wednesday, March 26, 2025
  • Look for your invite next week, or sign up now on mckeany-flavell.com
• McKeany-Flavell’s 2025 Spring Market Seminar: Industry Trends & Consumption
  • Live online event! Free for all clients!
  • Wednesday, April 23, 2025
  • Visit mckeany-flavell.com to register today!

Host/Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management

March WASDE: A little sizzle but not much fire

• Corn and soy complex
  • U.S. corn, soybean balance sheets unchanged with much in the way of consumption uncertainty
  • Global S&D for corn and soybeans both show declining ending stocks vs. last month’s report
• Wheat
  • USDA cuts exports due to slower sales and shipments
  • Global wheat ending stocks FINALLY deviate from the 257 MMT stranglehold!
• Sugar
  • Sugar deliveries lowered
  • Beet production increased to a record amount
• Our next webinar: Seasonal Market Outlook
  • Wednesday, March 26, 2025
  • Look for your email invite, or sign up now on mckeany-flavell.com
• McKeany-Flavell’s 2025 Spring Market Seminar: Industry Trends & Consumption
  • Live online event! Free for all clients!
  • Wednesday, April 23, 2025
  • Visit mckeany-flavell.com to register today!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist

Tariffs: What we know today

• Outlining risks and impacts in the short- and long-term for grains and softs
• Import tariffs and agricultural products coming in…
  • Impact on some edible oil, corn-derivative, cocoa, and sugar markets
• Retaliatory tariffs and agricultural products going out…
  • Impact on corn, wheat, soy complex, and meat exports
• Wheat
  • Impacts net bearish long term, but regional basis could rise without Canadian wheat imports
• Cocoa
  • Cocoa products from Canada subject to “pantry loading” ahead of tariffs—or users pushing out orders to avoid tariffs
• Sugar
  • Mexican sugar imports at risk of tariffs—longer-term price implications
• Bearish corn, soybeans, and soybean meal but very supportive for soybean oil
• Smaller and niche edible oil markets most impacted by import tariffs
• Our next webinar: Seasonal Market Outlook
  • Wednesday, March 26, 2025
  • Look for your invite next week, or sign up now on mckeany-flavell.com
• McKeany-Flavell’s 2025 Spring Market Seminar: Industry Trends & Consumption
  • Live online event! Free for all clients!
  • Wednesday, April 23, 2025
  • Visit mckeany-flavell.com to register today!

Host/Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor

USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum: A first look at the 2025/26 crops

• Corn
  • Acreage near expectations
  • Ending stocks to grow
  • Will we see growth in consumption in 2025/26?
• Soybeans
  • Small reduction in yield
  • Ending stocks to decline, but consumption remains a question
• Wheat
  • U.S. wheat acreage target vs. 2024
  • Some questions around spring wheat acres and yield being too high
  • Ending stocks could offer a small surplus
• McKeany-Flavell’s 2025 Spring Market Seminar: Industry Trends & Consumption
  • Live online event! Free for all clients!
  • Wednesday, April 23, 2025
  • Visit mckeany-flavell.com to register today!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor

Live from the International Sweetener Colloquium 2025!

• Focus:
  • What's happening in the sugar industry and with sugar negotiations
• Big question:
  • How are negotiations at this year’s Colloquium comparing to the past few years?
• Patient vs. pushing
  • Are we seeing the “first buy is the best buy” mentality this year?
• Big topics:
  • Upcoming crop outlook
  • Tariffs, demand, and weight-loss drugs
    • Will the sugar still flow?
    • What about sugar-containing products?
    • Possible situation with domestic production and consumption?
• It's going to be an interesting round of negotiations over the next few months!
• Shout-out to Craig Ruffolo and Shawn Bingham for their fantastic presentations!
• McKeany-Flavell’s 2025 Spring Market Seminar: Industry Trends & Consumption
  • Live online event! Free for all clients!
  • Wednesday, April 23, 2025
  • Visit mckeany-flavell.com to register

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist

Wheat winterkill & investments in commodities

• Wheat
  • Assessing winterkill risk on wheat
  • HRW: What does the 10-year harvested area average look like?
  • How does this winter compare to years past?
• Commodity index funds
  • Inflation worries are driving new investor money into commodity index funds
  • Top diversified commodity funds are seeing strong growth in new assets
  • Update on allocations to agricultural commodities as part of a diversified fund portfolio 
  • How much have these funds contributed to new long positions in corn, wheat, and sugar futures from last year's lows?
• 2025 International Sweetener Colloquium
  • Kicks of this Sunday, Feb. 23
  • Seven representatives of McKeany-Flavell will be in attendance
  • Watch Craig Ruffolo speak on the North American Sweetener Market Outlook panel on Feb. 24!
  • Watch Shawn Bingham speak on Risk Management in Volatile Markets on Feb. 25!
• McKeany-Flavell’s 2025 Spring Market Seminar: Industry Trends & Consumption
  • Live online event! Free for all clients!
  • Wednesday, April 23, 2025
  • Visit mckeany-flavell.com to register

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management

Happy Valentine's Day! A cocoa & chocolate update

• Cocoa arrival numbers and weather tell of a promising season ahead
• Major cocoa and chocolate producers are concerned about how cocoa prices can affect their financial performance and projections for the year
• Q4 2024 grind showed a decline in demand: Will Q1 2025 grind help with the trajectory?
• McKeany-Flavell’s 2025 Spring Market Seminar: Industry Trends & Consumption
  • Live online event!
  • Wednesday, April 23, 2025
  • Registration is now open!

Host: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor
Expert: Marilyn Adutwum, Data Analyst