McKeany-Flavell Hot Commodity Podcast

A forward look at winter weather, La Niña, & inflation

• Weather
  • NOAA’s latest odds of a La Niña are declining: Will it actually arrive?
  • Winter weather expectations may not be as threatening to crops like wheat
• The markets
  • CPI sees three consecutive months of increases
  • How much did the PPI move over the last three months?
  • Fed Powell surprises market with hawkish comments
• Don’t forget to register for next Wednesday’s webinar!
  • Revisiting Systematic Timing Models: A Secret Weapon for Procurement Risk Management
  • November 20, 11am PT / 2pm ET
  • Register at mckeany-flavell.com today!

Host/Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management
Expert: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor

The November USDA WASDE bullish award goes to...

• Sugar
  • USDA adjusts for early harvest sugar
  • Shifts in old crop numbers
• Wheat
  • Few changes for wheat, global stocks remain steady at 257 MMT
  • Shout out to Kazakhstan with a 2 MMT increase to production!
• Corn & Soy Complex
  • Both U.S. corn and soybean yields reduced (and much more for the latter).
  • Ending stocks of soybean oil growing more ominous for 2024/25

Register for our next webinar on November 20, 2024 at 2:00 PM ET!
Revisiting Systematic Timing Models
Visit mckeany-flavell.com to reserve your seat today!

Host/Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services 
Experts: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
               Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor

Will this Halloween be spooky for chocolate lovers?

• With hefty chocolate prices scaring consumers, will we see a bias for sugar-based confectionery treats?
• Prices at the grocery store: Chocolate candies vs. sugar, candy, and gum
• Retailers are promoting more aggressively to move products
  • Will price increases continue to insulate most companies on earnings/sales?
• Mark your calendars for our next webinar!
  • Revisiting Systematic Timing Models with Dir. of Risk Management, Shawn Bingham
  • Wednesday, Nov. 20, 2024
  • Registration opens week of Nov. 4 at mckeany-flavell.com
  • Clients check your inboxes

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Jeffrey Rasinski, Consultant

Bulls vs. bears! Which direction could edible oils & wheat be trending?

• Weather trending more bullish by the month for wheat
• U.S. wheat exports up YOY, but pace is slowing
• Global supply tightening leading to elevated edible oils prices
• Geopolitical factors, election outcome, and consumer behavior are impactful unknowns for vegetable oil consumption
• U.S. Corn Wet Milling Industry Study, 2023 Edition!
  • What buyers, consumers, and investors need to know
  • Processes, products, pricing, and growth potential
  • Visit us at mckeany-flavell.com to purchase your copy today!
• Missed this week's Fall Market Outlook webinar? If you're an IQ subscriber, watch it now on the IQ Platform!
  • Not a subscriber? Reach out for a trial subscription today!

Host/Expert: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Specialist
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services

Frightening October energy volatility

• Energy volatility has been heightened by the ongoing events in the Middle East
• Disruption to the flow of crude through the Strait of Hormuz remains the biggest risk
• U.S. oil production reaches a new peak
• Could global economic slowing see WTI spend more time below $70 than above?
• Webinar next week!
  • Fall Market Outlook
  • Wednesday, October 23
  • Registration is now open! Check your email or visit mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Risk Management

October WASDE can be full of scary surprises! Did today hold up?

• Wheat
  • U.S. wheat stocks decline, but still up YOY
• Soy complex
  • Soybean & soybean oil balance sheets unchanged
• Corn
  • See soy complex
• Sugar
  • Beet sugar production up
  • 2023/23 high-tier raised by how much?
• Now available for purchase!
  • McKeany-Flavell’s U.S. Corn Wet Milling Industry Study, 2023 Edition
  • What buyers, consumers, and investors need to know
  • Visit us at mckeany-flavell.com to learn more
• Don’t forget to register for our next webinar!
  • Fall Market Outlook on October 23, 2024
  • Registration is now open! Check your email or visit mckeany-flavell.com

Host/Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
Expert: Eric Thornton, Commodity Specialist

What a wild world! Current factors shaping commodity prices

• The strike is off! (at least for now…)
• Good jobs report with some points of consideration
• Turmoil in the Middle East putting at least a temporary floor beneath futures prices
• Don’t forget to register for our next webinar
  • Fall Market Outlook on October 23, 2024
  • Registration opens week of Oct. 7 at mckeany-flavell.com
  • Clients check your inboxes

Host/Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Risk Management
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services

Interpreting today's USDA Grain Stocks & Small Grains reports

• September stock revisions
  • Net bullish for corn
  • Neutral for soybeans
• Wheat production fell by how much?
• Harvested area for wheat increases, while yield falls
• Next webinar! Fall Market Overview
  • Wednesday, Oct. 23, 2024
  • Registration opens week of Oct. 7 at mckeany-flavell.com
  • Clients check your inboxes

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Eric Thornton, Commodity Specialist

Today's special: The USDA Cold Storage Report

Would you like cheese, butter, nuts, eggs, or frozen fruit?

• What makes butter inventory so key this time of the year?
• The key differences between butter: U.S. vs. Europe
• Can New Zealand step up and potentially supply product to Europe?
• Butter in cold storage is in decline, but what’s the whole story?
• Are butter prices relaxing?
• Let’s talk cheese inventories
• Next webinar! Fall Market Overview
  • Wednesday, Oct. 23, 2024
  • Registration opens week of Oct. 7 at mckeany-flavell.com
  • Clients check your inboxes
• Now available for purchase!
  • McKeany-Flavell’s U.S. Corn Wet Milling Industry Study, 2023 Edition
  • What buyers, consumers, and investors need to know
  • Visit us at mckeany-flavell.com to learn more

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Jeffrey Rasinski, Consultant

A bullish week for #11 sugar

• #11 raw sugar futures rallying, up 5 cents in last month
• Dryness in Brazil reducing 2025 production expectations
• India not expected to export sugar despite industry calls to do so
• Don’t forget to register for next week’s webinar!
  • Energy Markets Update on September 25, 2024
  • Registration is now open! Check your email or visit mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist