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Empowering clients with commercial intelligence, supply chain expertise, and risk management solutions.
Episodes
Friday Jan 05, 2024
Friday Jan 05, 2024
- December jobs growth surprises
- Beating estimates!
- U.S. economy job production numbers
- What may keep the Fed on hold a little longer
- Rate cuts are still a “when” not an “if”
- When will cuts most likely be seen?
- McKeany-Flavell’s Spring Market Seminar coming April 17, 2024!
- Registration opens Jan. 10 on mckeany-flavell.com
Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Risk Management
Friday Dec 29, 2023
Friday Dec 29, 2023
- Dairy
- Herd will eventually stabilize and start to grow again
- We will begin 2024 with 50,000 fewer heifers than we did in 2023
- Milk output will begin to grow again by spring flush
- Buyers should be defensive and buy into weakness to extend coverage
- Cocoa
- Fundamentals are only now starting to catch up to the price move we have already seen
- Lag in arrivals and projected deficit is growing as we near the mid-point of the main-crop
- More price increases by large branded companies are expected as cocoa continues to trade at 47-year highs
- High prices will cause demand destruction manifest in retail sales figures
- Economy & energy
- First rate reduction at June FOMC: 100bp total 2024
- Core CPI falls to 3% and holds
- GDP averages closer to 1%, maybe a slight negative quarter mixed in
- S&P makes new record high, but returns come back down to earth in the 6-8% range
- Crude oil breaks the $68 soft floor and averages $65 despite an EIA forecast of $78
- Sugar
- # 11 sugar will trade up to mid-20s before coming back to current levels
- # 16 market will remain just below High Tier imports
- 2025 sugar negotiations will mirror 2024 negotiations
- Corn
- Acreage may lose to soybeans
- Ethanol demand stalls
- Exports robust
- Ending stocks remain over 2.0 billion bushels
- Wheat
- U.S. crop to reach 2 billion bushels next year, despite fewer planted acres
- Global stocks recover: 267 to 270 MMT
- La Niña watch in late 2024
- Edible oils
- Soybean oil use for biofuel to reach or surpass 13.4 billion lbs
- Despite this, soybean oil futures may finally meet their “new normal”: listen for that number!
- McKeany-Flavell’s Spring Market Seminar coming April 17, 2024!
- Mark your calendars, registration opens in January!
- Happy New Year!
Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Jeffrey Rasinski, Consultant
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Risk Management
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist
Expert: Eric Thornton, Commodity Specialist
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Friday Dec 22, 2023
Friday Dec 22, 2023
Grab your hot cocoa, sit back, and enjoy this year's McKeany-Flavell holiday poem. Happy Holidays!
Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Friday Dec 15, 2023
Friday Dec 15, 2023
- Innovations that are solving challenges in the candy industry
- The brilliance of gummy vitamins
- MCT oils: What are they?
- The shift in edible oils and respective availability
- Western Candy Conference: March 20-24, 2024
- Come join us!
- Registration available at Western Candy Conference
- Reach out to AJ at Khoury@capol-group.com
Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Guest: AJ Khoury, Technical Dir. of Sales, Capol
Friday Dec 08, 2023
Friday Dec 08, 2023
- Corn, soy complex, and wheat
- No major change to grains balance sheet
- Sugar
- Sugar imports increased
- Stocks-to-use at only 12.8%, below the target 13.5%
- High-tier imports raised massively
- Mark your calendars!
- Spring Market Seminar: April 17, 2024
- Le Méridien Chicago - Oakbrook, IL
- Registration opens January 2024
Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist
Friday Dec 01, 2023
Friday Dec 01, 2023
- Wheat
- Best winter wheat planting conditions since 2019
- Optimism for better yields and production weighs on prices
- Sugar
- USDA adjusts raw sugar TRQ
- Mark your calendars!
- Spring Market Seminar: April 17, 2024
- Le Méridien Chicago - Oakbrook, IL
- Registration opens January 2024
Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Eric Thornton, Commodity Specialist
Wednesday Nov 22, 2023
Wednesday Nov 22, 2023
- Unpacking the cost of a Thanksgiving Day meal
- Estimates vs. reality
- Nicole carves those numbers up!
- Fashion advice for the big day
- Football friends and foes
- Coping strategies for problem family members
- Wishing you a safe and happy Thanksgiving holiday!
Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Friday Nov 17, 2023
Friday Nov 17, 2023
- U.S. crude oil hits record monthly production
- Operational oil rigs are 25% fewer?
- U.S. per capita gasoline demand and consumption expectations
- The impact of fuel efficiency and EVs
- The effect renewable diesel and SAF will have on feedstock usage
- Become a subscriber to McKeany-Flavell's IQ Ingredient Intelligence platform!
Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Risk Management
Thursday Nov 09, 2023
Thursday Nov 09, 2023
- Wheat
- USDA finally gets on par with changes to Indian and Russian production
- U.S. balance ending stocks rise 14 million bushels
- Corn & soy complex
- USDA revises corn, soybean yield higher
- Tight stocks get tighter
- 2022/23 strong year for soybean oil in biofuel setting up lower stocks for 2023/24
- Sugar
- Beet crop raised to record 5.363 million STRV
- USDA states they now recognize high-tier imports are important part of supply under current market conditions
- Next week's webinar: Energy Markets Update with Shawn Bingham and Jeff Rasinski
- Wednesday, Nov. 15, 2023, 11am PT / 2pm ET
- Register now at mckeany-flavell.com
Host: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Eric Thornton, Commodity Specialist
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
Friday Nov 03, 2023
Friday Nov 03, 2023
- Weather in the U.S. and South America will have a heavy influence on production expectations for grains
- Watch the #11 sugar market: Is it possible to see even higher prices?
- West Africa cocoa production will either confirm or debunk supply concerns currently in the news
- Quick picks on energy ahead of webinar
- Next webinar: Energy Markets Update with Shawn Bingham and Jeff Rasinski
- Wednesday, Nov. 15, 2023, 11am PT / 2pm ET
- Register now at mckeany-flavell.com
Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Eric Thornton, Commodity Specialist