McKeany-Flavell Hot Commodity Podcast

Macadamia nuts! Update from Guillaume Maillard of Ten Senses

• Ten Senses and Pamoja Farms
  • A Kenyan-based company focused on sustainability and traceability
  • Specialize in macadamia nuts and coffee
• The macadamia nut market
  • Learning from the challenges of 2023
  • 2024: great opportunities ahead!
    • Product changes
    • Demand and volume going up
• Heading to the Natural Products Expo West?
  • March 12-16, 2024 in Anaheim, CA
  • Reach out! We’d love to meet with you
• Don’t forget: McKeany-Flavell's 2024 Spring Market Seminar
  • April 17, 2024 in Oak Brook, IL
  • In-person or virtual
  • Visit mckeany-flavell.com to register
  • Seats are filling up fast!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Guest expert: Guillaume Maillard, Founder & Director at Pamoja Farms
Email: g.maillard@pamoja-impact.com

Getting technical with the sugar markets

• World sugar surpasses 50% retracement off the lows this week
• Speculators done with long liquidations but have not been buyers yet on this rebound
• Historical correlation between #11’s & 16’s is a wild ride but currently above 90%
• #16 domestic raw futures up $0.04 vs. last year approaching negotiations
• Mark your calendars!
  • McKeany-Flavell’s Spring Market Seminar coming April 17, 2024!
    • Registration is now open at mckeany-flavell.com
  • Our next webinar: Key Ingredients in 2024
    • Next Wednesday, January 31
    • Check your email to register, or visit mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Shawn Bingham, Director of Risk Management
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist

 

 

Natural & organic sweeteners with Samantha Yap of PanaSource

• Introduction of PanaSource Ingredients and alternative sweeteners
• Trends and growth categories for the sweetener industry
  • The Stevia resurgence: What’s driving it?
  • The latest on sucralose and allulose
• Challenges that may lay ahead in 2024 for natural sweeteners
• You can meet with Samantha and the McKeany-Flavell team at the 2024 International Sweetener Colloquium!
  • February 25-28 in Aventura, Florida
• And mark your calendars for:
  • McKeany-Flavell’s Spring Market Seminar coming April 17, 2024!
    • Registration is now open at mckeany-flavell.com
  • McKeany-Flavell’s monthly webinar: Key Ingredients in 2024
    • Wednesday, January 31
    • Check your email to register, or visit mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Special guest: Samantha Yap, Director of Sales, PanaSource Ingredients
Email: samantha@panasourceusa.com

Touchdowns & a few flags called for January WASDE & grain stocks report

• Sugar
  • Sugar production forecast at record 9.391 million STRV
  • High-tier imports increased 110,000 SRV to 575,000 STRV
  • Mexico production lowered 267,000 MT to 5.016 MMT
• Wheat
  • Winter wheat seedings released: 34.4 million acres, down 6%
  • Harvested area should improve YOY
  • Little change for WASDE and ending stocks
• Corn
  • USDA surprises with better U.S. corn yield
  • Huge global stocks increase
• Soy complex
  • Domestic soybean stocks edging higher
  • Soybean oil balance sheet is precarious
• Mark your calendars!
  • McKeany-Flavell’s Spring Market Seminar coming April 17, 2024!
    • Registration is now open at mckeany-flavell.com
  • Our next webinar: Key Ingredients in 2024
    • Wednesday, January 31
    • Invites coming your way soon!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
Expert: Eric Thornton, Commodity Specialist
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services

 

Inflation station reporting slowing trains

• December jobs growth surprises
  • Beating estimates!
• U.S. economy job production numbers
• What may keep the Fed on hold a little longer
• Rate cuts are still a “when” not an “if”
  • When will cuts most likely be seen?
• McKeany-Flavell’s Spring Market Seminar coming April 17, 2024!
  • Registration opens Jan. 10 on mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Risk Management

Enter the Year of the Dragon! Our predictions for 2024

• Dairy
  • Herd will eventually stabilize and start to grow again
  • We will begin 2024 with 50,000 fewer heifers than we did in 2023
  • Milk output will begin to grow again by spring flush
  • Buyers should be defensive and buy into weakness to extend coverage
• Cocoa
  • Fundamentals are only now starting to catch up to the price move we have already seen
  • Lag in arrivals and projected deficit is growing as we near the mid-point of the main-crop
  • More price increases by large branded companies are expected as cocoa continues to trade at 47-year highs
  • High prices will cause demand destruction manifest in retail sales figures

• Economy & energy
  • First rate reduction at June FOMC: 100bp total 2024
  • Core CPI falls to 3% and holds
  • GDP averages closer to 1%, maybe a slight negative quarter mixed in
  • S&P makes new record high, but returns come back down to earth in the 6-8% range
  • Crude oil breaks the $68 soft floor and averages $65 despite an EIA forecast of $78
• Sugar
  • # 11 sugar will trade up to mid-20s before coming back to current levels
  • # 16 market will remain just below High Tier imports
  • 2025 sugar negotiations will mirror 2024 negotiations
• Corn
  • Acreage may lose to soybeans
  • Ethanol demand stalls
  • Exports robust
  • Ending stocks remain over 2.0 billion bushels
• Wheat
  • U.S. crop to reach 2 billion bushels next year, despite fewer planted acres
  • Global stocks recover: 267 to 270 MMT
  • La Niña watch in late 2024
• Edible oils
  • Soybean oil use for biofuel to reach or surpass 13.4 billion lbs
  • Despite this, soybean oil futures may finally meet their “new normal”: listen for that number!
• McKeany-Flavell’s Spring Market Seminar coming April 17, 2024!
  • Mark your calendars, registration opens in January!
• Happy New Year!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Jeffrey Rasinski, Consultant
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Risk Management
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist
Expert: Eric Thornton, Commodity Specialist
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services

 

‘Twas the night before Christmas, McKeany-Flavell style!

Grab your hot cocoa, sit back, and enjoy this year's McKeany-Flavell holiday poem. Happy Holidays!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services

Innovations in the candy industry with AJ Khoury of Capol

• Innovations that are solving challenges in the candy industry
  • The brilliance of gummy vitamins
  • MCT oils: What are they?
  • The shift in edible oils and respective availability
• Western Candy Conference: March 20-24, 2024
  • Come join us!
  • Registration available at Western Candy Conference
  • Reach out to AJ at Khoury@capol-group.com

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Guest: AJ Khoury, Technical Dir. of Sales, Capol

December WASDE: Sugar, sugar, sugar

• Corn, soy complex, and wheat
  • No major change to grains balance sheet
• Sugar
  • Sugar imports increased
  • Stocks-to-use at only 12.8%, below the target 13.5%
  • High-tier imports raised massively
• Mark your calendars!
  • Spring Market Seminar: April 17, 2024
  • Le Méridien Chicago - Oakbrook, IL
  • Registration opens January 2024

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist

Wheat plantings & sugar adjustments

• Wheat
  • Best winter wheat planting conditions since 2019
  • Optimism for better yields and production weighs on prices
• Sugar
  • USDA adjusts raw sugar TRQ
• Mark your calendars!
  • Spring Market Seminar: April 17, 2024
  • Le Méridien Chicago - Oakbrook, IL
  • Registration opens January 2024

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Eric Thornton, Commodity Specialist