McKeany-Flavell Hot Commodity Podcast

Let's unpack the June USDA Acreage & Grain Stocks reports

• Corn steals the show with an increase in acres!
  • What’s the number?
  • Higher corn acreage pencils stocks-to-use in at over 15%
  • Did corn producers take advantage of the June seasonal rally?
    • March to June stocks change suggests they did not
• Farmers still have full grain bins
  • What does that mean for any price rallies?
• Soybean acres take a hit
  • How does that leave the balance sheet looking?
• McKeany accurately hits the wheat stocks estimate!
• Mark your calendar for our next webinar!
  • Wheat Market Update
  • Wednesday, July 31
  • Registration begins July 17: Watch your email or visit mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Jeffrey Rasinski, Consultant
Expert: Eric Thornton, Commodity Specialist
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Risk Management

Rousing activity in wheat! What’s the latest?

• Update on the U.S. winter wheat harvest and spring wheat conditions
• Russia’s crop bigger than expected?
• U.S. exports are strong
  • Up 25% YOY
• Don’t forget to register for our next webinar!
  • Summer Market Outlook on June 26, 2024
  • Look for your email invite or register directly at mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Eric Thornton, Commodity Specialist

Grab your passport & go ‘round the world (sugar)

• Will Brazilian sugar share surpass 50% this year?
• Is world market becoming too reliant on Brazil?
• Upcoming monsoonal rainfall key to production in India and Thailand
• Our next webinar is coming up!
  • Summer Market Outlook on June 26, 2024
  • Look for your email invite or register directly at mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist

A Wednesday WASDE

• June WASDE is the “appetizer before the entrée”
  • No major changes
  • All eyes on the Jun. 28 Acreage report
• Wheat
  • U.S. wheat exports on the rise as Black Sea output falls
• Corn / Soy Complex
  • No changes to U.S. corn
  • Small true-ups in soy complex
• Sugar
  • Current crop beet sugar production lowered 
  • High-tier imports increased for current and new crop
  • Mexico ending stocks up: Bearish!
• Don’t forget to register for our next webinar!
  • Summer Market Outlook on June 26, 2024
  • Look for your email invite or register directly at mckeany-flavell.com

Host/Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
Expert: Eric Thornton, Commodity Specialist

This is bull…ish!

• Weather’s been good, but you never know!
• Biofuel production to grow in 2024/25
• No exports? Not just yet…
• Don’t forget to register for our next webinar!
  • Summer Market Outlook on June 26, 2024
  • Look for your email invite or register directly at mckeany-flavell.com 

Host/Expert: Eric Thornton, Commodity Specialist
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services

Mexico sugar: It’s gonna be a wild ride!

• Will Mexico imports reach 650,000 MT?
• June is the start of the rainy season, but will we get any rain this summer?
• The 2024/25 production forecast
• How does this affect HFCS heading to Mexico?
• Our next webinar:
  • Summer Market Outlook on June 26, 2024
  • Look for your email invite or register directly at mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist

 

Cocoa market volatility continues

• Weather has improved!
  • What does that mean for the tail end of the mid-crop and pod setting for next year’s main crop?
• Cocoa bean arrivals continue to lag, but have they been under reported?
• Why have Coffee and Cocoa Council (CCC) suspended operations for 40 coops?
• Mark your calendar for our next webinar!
  • Summer Market Outlook webinar
  • Wednesday, June 26
  • First wave of invites going out June 12

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Jeffrey Rasinski, Consultant

Inflation station: Conflicted economic data for April

• PPI: inflation is too hot!
• CPI: is inflation cooling too fast?
• Jobs growth slowed markedly
  • What’s unemployment doing?
• What to expect for future inflation after bottoming in December
• Market's rate cut expectations holding steady this week, but is this counter to the Fed’s own statements?
• Next webinar is on Wednesday!
  • Dairy Market Update on Wednesday, May 22, 2024
  • Check your email for your invite or register at mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Risk Management

Live from the Sweets & Snacks Expo 2024!

• Well attended event put on by the National Confectioners Association
• Lots of sour going on!
• Freeze-dried candy: What was Mike’s favorite?
• Talk from all of the chocolate companies
  • Switching from chocolate to compound?
  • Using less amount on the product?
• And the winner of this year’s Candy Industry Kettle Award goes to…
• Our next webinar:
  • Dairy Market Update on May 22, 2024
  • Check your email for your invite or register at mckeany-flavell.com

Host/Expert: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO

WASDE: Welcome 2024/25 to the party!

• Wheat
  • New crop 2024/25 U.S. wheat largely as expected
  • Global stocks remain at a deficit
  • Will it struggle to hit USDA’s estimate?
• Corn
  • Global balance sheet seemingly growing more portentous?
  • Baby steps!
• Soy complex
  • U.S. soybean, soybean oil picture for 2024/25 suggests loosening stocks scenario
  • A quick note on soybean meal
• Sugar
  • Not many supply-side changes expected for production
  • New crop 2024/25 showing good numbers
  • Expecting healthy increases?
  • No growth: What’s driving that?
• Don’t forget to register for our next webinar!
  • Dairy Market Update on May 22, 2024
  • Look for your email invite or register directly at mckeany-flavell.com  

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Eric Thornton, Commodity Specialist
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist