McKeany-Flavell Hot Commodity Podcast

September WASDE: What's driving prices?

• Corn
  • Domestic corn acreage increased
  • Corn yield lowered: Still too much, too soon?
  • Slow down in ethanol
• Soy Complex
  • Uptick in soybean ending stocks and slightly higher acreage
  • Upward to revision to crush
  • Where’s China?
• What's driving prices?
  • Not much in the way of change short of production adjustments for corn, soy complex, but it’s what we DON’T see in the numbers that may drive prices for corn, soybeans, and soybean oil
• Sugar
  • Beet production lowered, while cane production increased
  • Mexican imports cut in half under Suspension Agreement rules
  • Stocks-to-use still well above the target
• Next week is our Energy Market Update Webinar!
  • Wed., September 17, 11am PT / 2pm ET
  • Clients, be on the lookout for your invite, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO  
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist

Pre-heat for upcoming WASDE: Corn, soybeans & sugar outlook

• Corn
  • Corn yields should see reduction
  • 2025/26 stocks could test 2.0 billion?
• Soybeans
  • Balance sheet could get tighter on possible yield reduction
• Sugar
  • Will USDA be able to cut into sugar surplus?
  • Will the Louisiana cane crop meet record forecast of 2.154 million STRV?
  • Has recent weather cut into the 262,000 STRV increase in beet production forecast last month?
• Mark your calendar for our upcoming webinar!
  • Energy Market Update Webinar
  • Wed., September 17, 11am PT / 2pm ET
  • Clients, be on the lookout for your invite, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist

It’s Labor Day! That means fall & corn sweetener negotiations have commenced

• Where is the corn sweetener market currently in negotiation?
• Corn crop is seeing some challenges in August
  • Top-end yield expectations could be revised lower
• Co-product credit reconciliation and reporting will be a major topic of discussion
• Mark your calendar for our upcoming webinar!
  • Energy Market Update Webinar
  • Wed., September 17, 11am PT / 2pm ET
  • Clients, be on the lookout for your invite, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor
Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist

Checking in on corn & soybeans! A crop tour update

• Pro Farmer sees strong corn yields for much of the Belt
• Soybean pod counts well above last year for a few states
• Findings for one “I” state leave room for uncertainty
• As is often the case, regional weather dynamics may come into play for final national averages
• Not a customer on McKeany-Flavell’s IQ Intelligence Platform?
  Visit mckeany-flavell.com to learn more about IQ, where we offer subscribers 24/7 access to
  • Real-time market updates and technical analysis
  • Discussion of supply and demand fundamentals
  • Price forecasts
  • Charts, tables, and downloadable PowerPoint market overviews

Host: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services

August WASDE: Record yields in corn & sugar harvest has begun

• Sugar
  • Beet crop is looking excellent
    • Potential record yields?
  • Harvesting has begun!
  • Louisiana crop raised while Florida stays about the same
• Corn
  • Huge record on yield!
    • Due to lots of crops and good weather
  • Biggest surprise? More acreage picked up
• Soy complex
  • What corn gained, soybeans lost
  • Planted acres and exports down
• Wheat
  • More loss of acreage
  • Yield up a bit
  • Exports revised higher
• Not a customer on McKeany-Flavell’s IQ Intelligence Platform? Visit mckeany-flavell.com to learn more about IQ, where we offer subscribers 24/7 access to
  • real-time market updates and technical analysis
  • discussion of supply and demand fundamentals
  • price forecasts
  • as well as charts, tables, and downloadable PowerPoint market overviews

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
Expert: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor

Recapping this year’s ASA International Sweetener Symposium

• What is the ASA Symposium?
  • Who attends and what's discussed
• Will the new Farm Bill become law this year?
• Farmers’ take on the 2025/26 crops
  • How are those crops in Florida and Louisiana doing?
• Big takeaway:
  • America’s farmers first, and no specialty refined quota
• You can find much more info on sugar and other commodities on McKeany-Flavell's IQ Intelligence Platform
  • Visit mckeany-flavell to learn more about what we offer 24/7 to our subscribers!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist

Crop progress, freight, & tariffs update

• Crop progress
  • Ideal weather for the U.S., but what about Canada and Europe?
  • Corn: What’s up with those big numbers?!?
  • Be on the lookout for August dryness and the hurricane season ramping up
• Freight
  • Union Pacific makes a major announcement (billions, not millions!)
  • Ocean, rail, and trucking updates
    • Which one is most stable at the moment?
  • Tariffs
    • Battling exhaustion
    • Exceptions for certain productions like coffee or tropical oils?
    • Ag policy: How the USDA is being restructured

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO  
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor

Catching up on the cocoa market

• Current weather and conditions in West Africa
• Anemic Q2 cocoa bean grind figures weigh on the market
• Ghana is planning to change the new crop year start date from Oct. 1 to Aug. 1 
• Hershey announces more price increases?
  • Halloween candy spared (for now)
• Not a customer on McKeany-Flavell’s IQ Intelligence Platform? Visit mckeany-flavell.com to learn more about IQ, where we offer subscribers 24/7 access to
  • Real-time market updates and technical analysis
  • Discussion of supply and demand fundamentals
  • Price forecasts
  • As well as charts, tables, and downloadable PowerPoint market overviews

Host: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor
Expert: Marilyn Adutwum, Data Analyst

Fishing for answers in the latest data on consumer inflation, tariffs, & the economy

• Consumer inflation edges higher in June
• Wholesale prices surprise by falling
• Market shaves off some of the rate reductions but still sees lower funds target at year-end
• Is Chairman Powell content to keep rates steady until tariff rates and policies are better understood?
• Not a customer on McKeany-Flavell’s IQ Intelligence Platform? Visit mckeany-flavell.com to learn more about IQ, where we offer subscribers 24/7 access to:
  • Real-time market updates and technical analysis
  • Discussion of supply and demand fundamentals
  • Price forecasts
  • As well as charts, tables, and downloadable PowerPoint market overviews

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management

July WASDE: Big buyers, consumption assumptions, & the effects of the BBB

• Wheat
  • U.S. wheat ending stocks projected higher YOY
  • Production up due to higher yields?
  • Global production is declining
• Corn
  • U.S. corn ending stocks fall further for this year and next
  • Who is the big buyer of corn?
  • Consumption assumptions are strong!
• Soy complex
  • BBB and EPA driving large biofuel consumption for soybean oil in 2025/26
  • Food use change is a head-scratcher
  • What’s 2025/26 looking like?
• Sugar
  • Sugar deliveries for food use are down from last year
    • What’s the forecast for 2026?
  • Beet production lowered
  • Mexico imports down
• Next week is our Wheat Market Update Webinar!
  • Wed., July 19, 11am PT / 2pm ET
  • Be on the lookout for your invite or sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist