McKeany-Flavell Hot Commodity Podcast

Happy Valentine's Day! A cocoa & chocolate update

• Cocoa arrival numbers and weather tell of a promising season ahead
• Major cocoa and chocolate producers are concerned about how cocoa prices can affect their financial performance and projections for the year
• Q4 2024 grind showed a decline in demand: Will Q1 2025 grind help with the trajectory?
• McKeany-Flavell’s 2025 Spring Market Seminar: Industry Trends & Consumption
  • Live online event!
  • Wednesday, April 23, 2025
  • Registration is now open!

Host: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor
Expert: Marilyn Adutwum, Data Analyst

February WASDE: Wildly...uninteresting

• Corn and soy complex
  • USDA leaves U.S. corn/soybean balance sheet unchanged
• Wheat
  • Limited changes to note for wheat
  • U.S. wheat food demand increases, but was it justified?
  • Global endings stocks: How much lower vs. last year?
• Sugar
  • Sugar deliveries now compared to last year
  • TRQ imports lowered
• McKeany-Flavell’s 2025 Spring Market Seminar: Industry Trends & Consumption
  • Live online event!
  • Wednesday, April 23, 2025
  • Registration is now open!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist

Economic roundup: Jobs & wages, the Fed, tariffs, & commodities

• Jobs number disappoints slightly but revisions to prior months were positive
• Unemployment rate falls to lowest in eight months
• Wage growth is accelerating but will it keep the Fed sidelined?
• Final tariff policy and impact still a big unknown: Leaning towards inflationary?
• McKeany-Flavell’s 2025 Spring Market Seminar: Industry Trends & Consumption
  • Live online event!
  • Wednesday, April 23, 2025
  • Registration is now open!

Host: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management

Mexico sugar & the possible impacts of tariffs

• Will Mexico production fall below the 5.094 MMT forecast?
• How tariffs on Mexico may impact sugar trade
• McKeany-Flavell’s 2025 Spring Market Seminar: Industry Trends & Consumption
  • Live online event!
  • Wednesday, April 23, 2025
  • Registration is now open!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist

Brrrr! It’s cold out there! Polar vortex hits the U.S.

• What impacts did we see from the harsh winter weather this week?
• Louisiana cane crop concerns
• Winter wheat threatened
• Rumors of peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine
• Next week! Don’t miss our Key Ingredients in 2025 webinar
  • Wednesday, January 29, 2025 at 11 am PT / 2 pm ET
  • Register now at mckeany-flavell.com or look for your invite starting next week

Host: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
Expert: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor

Jobs, inflation, & policy: No shortage of volatility!

• December jobs boost economic expectations
• December FOMC points to higher inflation and fewer rate cuts
• Policy decisions to ban future oil drilling and add new sanctions to Russia, along with threats from Canada, spike crude prices
• January WASDE bullish to grain market?
• No shortage of volatility ahead of next Monday’s Inauguration Day!
• Our next webinar: Key Ingredients in 2025
  • Wednesday, January 29, 2025 at 11 am PT / 2 pm ET
  • Register now at mckeany-flavell.com or if you’re a client, look for an invite in your inbox

Host: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management

January WASDE: Exciting, surprising, & revealing

• Corn and soy complex
  • USDA surprises with reduced U.S. production for corn, soybeans
  • Domestic soybean oil balance sheet is likely more ominous than ending stocks would indicate
• Wheat
  • Winter wheat acres on the rise! Up how much from 2024?
  • Grain stocks and WASDE about as expected
• Sugar
  • Beet production increased
  • A boost to stocks-to-use ratio
• Our next webinar: Key Ingredients in 2025
  • Wednesday, January 29, 2025 at 11 am PT / 2 pm ET
  • Register now at mckeany-flavell.com or look for your invite starting next week
• Our thoughts and prayers are with those affected by the LA fires

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist

School’s in session! Futures market speculators

• Commodity trading advisor (CTA) assets under management 
  • Down from 2022 peak but still significant
• Large CTAs trade as many as 250 futures contracts globally
  • Which category manages the majority of assets?
• Between January 2021 and February 2024, fund managers rode corn from record-long to record-short positions
  • How many contracts did they sell?
• How were speculators positioned in last year's soybean oil market?
• Lack of speculator liquidity likely helped fuel cocoa rally in 2024
• Mark your calendars for our next webinar! Not to be missed!
  • Key Ingredients in 2025
  • January 29, 2025 11am PT / 2pm ET
  • Registration opens soon at mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management

Looking down the road: Our predictions for 2025

• Corn
  • Corn acres will go up on better returns than soybeans
  • Feed demand may shrink due to continued issues of avian flu
  • Exports are being front-loaded but could stall in the second half
  • Could ending stocks equal 2024?
    
• Sugar
  • At what prices will sugar futures be trading in 2025?
  • Strong supplies and slightly lower demand in 2025 to pressure 2026 contracting, but by how much?
• Wheat
  • Ditto or status quo on 2025 vs. 2024?
  • What to expect from 2025/26 U.S. stocks surplus, as well as global stocks
  • Expectations for 2025/26 U.S. wheat exports
  • Two more countries will approve HB4 GMO wheat: Guesses as to who
• Soy complex & edible oils
  • Prevailing prediction: Volatility!
  • Uncertain biofuel and economic pictures provide a broad range of price possibilities
  • Does avian flu spreading to mammals fill more of the conversation in 2025?
• Economy & energy
  • Let’s talk basis cuts from the Fed
  • How will the CPI and GDP hold up?
  • Observations for WTI crude oil: What to expect
• Happy New Year!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
Expert: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management

A holiday poem, McKeany-Flavell style

Find a warm, cozy spot and listen to Nicole showcase her annual holiday poem, as only she can do. 

Happy Holidays!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services