McKeany-Flavell Hot Commodity Podcast

All things sugar: A post-Colloquium wrap-up

• Ball is in USDA’s court
  • TRQ decisions
  • April is out; May or June most likely
• 2022 International Sweetener Colloquium
  • Not much business activity, pushing things out
  • Some price indications, sugar companies not quite ready
  • Reasonable STU, supply looks good for both beet and cane
• Register now for our Spring Market Seminar 2022
  • Wednesday, April 27, Oakbrook, IL
  • Register to attend in person or virtually—your choice!
  • Register here!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Sweeteners Specialist

Live from the 2022 International Sweetener Colloquium!

• What we’ve learned
  • Inflation is real!
  • Expect a heavy negotiation season
  • The sugar folks are friendly!
• What to expect in the year ahead
  • Beet industry sold by mid-June
  • Price increases and pain
  • But also, innovation!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Eric Thornton, Commodity Specialist
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Risk Management
Expert: Jeffrey Rasinski, Consultant

Ukraine-Russian conflict: Markets & risk analysis

• Wheat and corn exports could be impacted
• Biden specifically not targeting energy payment sanctions
• Traders bet grain sanctions off the table given global inflation pressures
• Technical profile suggests price action on Feb. 24, 2022 was at least partially driven by a short squeeze exhaustion
• Grain and energy markets likely to retreat at least temporarily until buyers step back in lower

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Eric Thornton, Commodity Specialist
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Risk Management

Yikes! What’s going on with the edible oils markets?

• Situation in South America positive for U.S. soybean, soybean product exports
• Indonesian actions make tight market tighter
• Futures coverage from here?

• Next Wed, Feb. 23, is our Key Ingredients of 2022 webinar
•  Register here!
• Registration is open for our Spring Market Seminar 2022!
• Wednesday, April 27, Oakbrook, IL
• Register to attend in person or virtually—your choice!
• Register here!

Host: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services

It’s 2022 but things look oddly like 1979

• Crude oil is spiking on geopolitical events
• Inflation is back and climbing after having just fell under 5%
• Commodity markets are on the move higher
• Interest rates are low by early 70’s comparisons
• What does the Fed do to cool the inflation spiral?
• How does it end economically?
• What can we take from that period and apply to a forecast?  

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Risk Management

 

Diving into the WASDE waters

• Sugar
  • Sugar supplies increase
  • 2021/22 stocks-to-use ratio hits 14.7%
  • Raw sugar prices still over $.36 per lb for current crop year
• Wheat
  • Relative snooze
• Corn
  • See wheat
• Soybean complex
  • Projection adjustments show why it will be the market to watch for 2022

• Registration is open for our Spring Market Seminar 2022!
• Wednesday, April 27, Oakbrook, IL
• Register to attend in person or virtually—your choice!
• Register here!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services

Next week’s WASDE: Steady as it goes

• Corn
  • Minor adjustment to the domestic balance sheet
  • Maybe a little bump in ethanol
• Soy complex
  • Watch for ending stocks numbers to change
• Wheat
  • Should be fairly quiet with no major changes from January
  • Couple of tweaks to global demand are possible
• Sugar
  • Beet production could go down, but not by much
  • Cane production could come up
  • Imports adjustment possible

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Eric Thornton, Commodity Specialist
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Sweeteners Specialist

 

COVID challenges with Taffy Town & Capol

• COVID challenges in the food industry
  • Derek Glade (Taffy Town) and AJ Khoury (Capol)
• Western Candy Conference!
  • What is it and why you want to go
  • More info can be found at westerncandyconference.org
• Registration is now open for our Spring Market Seminar 2022!
  • Wednesday, April 27, Oakbrook, IL
  • Register to attend in person or virtually—your choice!
  • Register here!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Guest: Derek Glade, VP Sales & Marketing, Taffy Town
Guest: AJ Khoury, Technical Dir. of Sales, Capol

Tightness in wet milled products is on the menu for 2022

• Drier capacity remains an issue for N.A. starch and dextrose
• Alternative grind uses pulling attention of wet millers away from traditional products
• Get your orders in with extended lead times!
• For deeper insights purchase our updated study, U.S. Corn Wet Milling Industry: 2021 Edition
• Registration is open for our Spring Market Seminar 2022!
  
  • Wednesday, April 27, Oakbrook, IL
  • Register to attend in-person or virtually—your choice!
  • Register here!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist

 

Another stop at Inflation Station! All aboard!

• CPI 7.0%
  • Near 40-year high
• PPI 9.7%
  • Highest since records began in 2010
• O/N Fed funds target rate
  • 00-0.25%
• The funds to CPI correlation suggests the Fed is well behind in raising rates
• Commodity and U.S. dollar reaction?
  • Contingent on how fast other central banks move their own benchmark rates

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Risk Management