McKeany-Flavell Hot Commodity Podcast

USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum: A first look at the 2025/26 crops

• Corn
  • Acreage near expectations
  • Ending stocks to grow
  • Will we see growth in consumption in 2025/26?
• Soybeans
  • Small reduction in yield
  • Ending stocks to decline, but consumption remains a question
• Wheat
  • U.S. wheat acreage target vs. 2024
  • Some questions around spring wheat acres and yield being too high
  • Ending stocks could offer a small surplus
• McKeany-Flavell’s 2025 Spring Market Seminar: Industry Trends & Consumption
  • Live online event! Free for all clients!
  • Wednesday, April 23, 2025
  • Visit mckeany-flavell.com to register today!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor

Live from the International Sweetener Colloquium 2025!

• Focus:
  • What's happening in the sugar industry and with sugar negotiations
• Big question:
  • How are negotiations at this year’s Colloquium comparing to the past few years?
• Patient vs. pushing
  • Are we seeing the “first buy is the best buy” mentality this year?
• Big topics:
  • Upcoming crop outlook
  • Tariffs, demand, and weight-loss drugs
    • Will the sugar still flow?
    • What about sugar-containing products?
    • Possible situation with domestic production and consumption?
• It's going to be an interesting round of negotiations over the next few months!
• Shout-out to Craig Ruffolo and Shawn Bingham for their fantastic presentations!
• McKeany-Flavell’s 2025 Spring Market Seminar: Industry Trends & Consumption
  • Live online event! Free for all clients!
  • Wednesday, April 23, 2025
  • Visit mckeany-flavell.com to register

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist

Wheat winterkill & investments in commodities

• Wheat
  • Assessing winterkill risk on wheat
  • HRW: What does the 10-year harvested area average look like?
  • How does this winter compare to years past?
• Commodity index funds
  • Inflation worries are driving new investor money into commodity index funds
  • Top diversified commodity funds are seeing strong growth in new assets
  • Update on allocations to agricultural commodities as part of a diversified fund portfolio 
  • How much have these funds contributed to new long positions in corn, wheat, and sugar futures from last year's lows?
• 2025 International Sweetener Colloquium
  • Kicks of this Sunday, Feb. 23
  • Seven representatives of McKeany-Flavell will be in attendance
  • Watch Craig Ruffolo speak on the North American Sweetener Market Outlook panel on Feb. 24!
  • Watch Shawn Bingham speak on Risk Management in Volatile Markets on Feb. 25!
• McKeany-Flavell’s 2025 Spring Market Seminar: Industry Trends & Consumption
  • Live online event! Free for all clients!
  • Wednesday, April 23, 2025
  • Visit mckeany-flavell.com to register

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management

Happy Valentine's Day! A cocoa & chocolate update

• Cocoa arrival numbers and weather tell of a promising season ahead
• Major cocoa and chocolate producers are concerned about how cocoa prices can affect their financial performance and projections for the year
• Q4 2024 grind showed a decline in demand: Will Q1 2025 grind help with the trajectory?
• McKeany-Flavell’s 2025 Spring Market Seminar: Industry Trends & Consumption
  • Live online event!
  • Wednesday, April 23, 2025
  • Registration is now open!

Host: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor
Expert: Marilyn Adutwum, Data Analyst

February WASDE: Wildly...uninteresting

• Corn and soy complex
  • USDA leaves U.S. corn/soybean balance sheet unchanged
• Wheat
  • Limited changes to note for wheat
  • U.S. wheat food demand increases, but was it justified?
  • Global endings stocks: How much lower vs. last year?
• Sugar
  • Sugar deliveries now compared to last year
  • TRQ imports lowered
• McKeany-Flavell’s 2025 Spring Market Seminar: Industry Trends & Consumption
  • Live online event!
  • Wednesday, April 23, 2025
  • Registration is now open!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist

Economic roundup: Jobs & wages, the Fed, tariffs, & commodities

• Jobs number disappoints slightly but revisions to prior months were positive
• Unemployment rate falls to lowest in eight months
• Wage growth is accelerating but will it keep the Fed sidelined?
• Final tariff policy and impact still a big unknown: Leaning towards inflationary?
• McKeany-Flavell’s 2025 Spring Market Seminar: Industry Trends & Consumption
  • Live online event!
  • Wednesday, April 23, 2025
  • Registration is now open!

Host: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management

Mexico sugar & the possible impacts of tariffs

• Will Mexico production fall below the 5.094 MMT forecast?
• How tariffs on Mexico may impact sugar trade
• McKeany-Flavell’s 2025 Spring Market Seminar: Industry Trends & Consumption
  • Live online event!
  • Wednesday, April 23, 2025
  • Registration is now open!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist

Brrrr! It’s cold out there! Polar vortex hits the U.S.

• What impacts did we see from the harsh winter weather this week?
• Louisiana cane crop concerns
• Winter wheat threatened
• Rumors of peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine
• Next week! Don’t miss our Key Ingredients in 2025 webinar
  • Wednesday, January 29, 2025 at 11 am PT / 2 pm ET
  • Register now at mckeany-flavell.com or look for your invite starting next week

Host: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
Expert: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor

Jobs, inflation, & policy: No shortage of volatility!

• December jobs boost economic expectations
• December FOMC points to higher inflation and fewer rate cuts
• Policy decisions to ban future oil drilling and add new sanctions to Russia, along with threats from Canada, spike crude prices
• January WASDE bullish to grain market?
• No shortage of volatility ahead of next Monday’s Inauguration Day!
• Our next webinar: Key Ingredients in 2025
  • Wednesday, January 29, 2025 at 11 am PT / 2 pm ET
  • Register now at mckeany-flavell.com or if you’re a client, look for an invite in your inbox

Host: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management

January WASDE: Exciting, surprising, & revealing

• Corn and soy complex
  • USDA surprises with reduced U.S. production for corn, soybeans
  • Domestic soybean oil balance sheet is likely more ominous than ending stocks would indicate
• Wheat
  • Winter wheat acres on the rise! Up how much from 2024?
  • Grain stocks and WASDE about as expected
• Sugar
  • Beet production increased
  • A boost to stocks-to-use ratio
• Our next webinar: Key Ingredients in 2025
  • Wednesday, January 29, 2025 at 11 am PT / 2 pm ET
  • Register now at mckeany-flavell.com or look for your invite starting next week
• Our thoughts and prayers are with those affected by the LA fires

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist