McKeany-Flavell Hot Commodity Podcast

What to expect at next week’s ASGA conference

• ASGA is celebrating 50 years of excellence!
  • What will be discussed?
• Farm incomes dropping
  • Imperative to get beet payments up for the 2026/27 crop year
• Sugar growers going through generational change
  • Need to support young farmers of America
• Is the rebound in beet sugar deliveries sustainable?
• Did you miss our Key Ingredients in 2026 Webinar on Wednesday?
  • Watch now on our IQ platform!
  • Not an IQ subscriber? Reach out to us to learn more!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist

Diving deep into wheat reports

• Winter Wheat Seedings report
• Current look at winter wheat conditions and weather
• U.S. exports capped at 900 million bushels?
• Recommendations for strategy and coverage
• Join us next Wednesday, January 21 for our first webinar of the year!
  • Key Ingredients in 2026 Webinar: Anticipate Volatility & Plan Effectively
  • Clients, be on the lookout for your invite, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist
Expert: Eric Thornton, Vice President

 

January WASDE: Corn puts on a show!

• Corn & soy complex
  • Bearish surprise for U.S. corn via production
  • Soybean ending stocks higher as a result of paltry export demand
  • What gives with U.S. soybean oil stocks?
• Sugar
  • Louisiana cane production forecast breaks record!
  • Sugar deliveries forecast to drop, but by how much?
• Wheat
  • Catch up with wheat S&D on this Friday’s pod!
• Join us Wednesday, January 21 for our first webinar of the year!
  • Key Ingredients in 2026 Webinar: Anticipate Volatility & Plan Effectively
  • Clients, be on the lookout for your invite, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist

U.S. economy & weather: Passing grades (for now)

• Economy
  • Lackluster headline jobs growth with revisions lower
  • Unemployment rate reverses recent uptick
  • Fed still eyes 50-basis-point rate cuts this year
• Weather
  • NOAA’s latest forecast reveals a potential El Niño in H2 2026?
    • What crops could be affected?
  • Current conditions in the U.S. have been drier due to the weak La Niña weather pattern
• Join us on Wednesday, January 21 for our first webinar of the year!
  • Key Ingredients in 2026 Webinar: Anticipate Volatility & Plan Effectively
  • Clients, be on the lookout for your invite, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management
Expert: Eric Thornton, Vice President

Our predictions for 2026: On your mark, get set, go!

• Corn wet milling
  • Investments made will impact availability of liquid sweeteners
• Sugar
  • World sugar stays under 17 cents per lb
  • Brazil: Another monster crop
  • STU goes up: 18% by summer
  • More forfeitures during the summer months
• Wheat
  • U.S. acreage at an all-time low
  • Global production output to be more like last year’s than this year’s output (800 MMT vs. 837 MMT)
• Soy complex & edible oils
  • Resurgence in biofuel production
  • Conventional canola oil is the least expensive option for a good chunk of 2026
  • Impact of weight management drugs continues
  • Anti-seed oil trend to pick up traction
• Economy & energy
  • Three rate cuts during 2026: 2.75% to 3.00%
  • CPI: 2.6% for 2026
  • Inflation likely to tick up by year's end
  • Crude oil: $55 to $56 a barrel
• Happy New Year!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
Expert: Eric Thornton, Vice President
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management

'Twas the week before Christmas...

...and Nicole's got the mic, rhyming her way through a poem that is sure to be liked.

Happy holidays from McKeany-Flavell!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services

Soybean oil: A wild ride in 2025! What's next for 2026?

• Soybean oil futures
  • Why do we keep coming back to the same spot?
• Soybean oil in biofuels
  • A combo of the known and unknown
• Food consumption
  • Consumer trends of all forms to drive demand
  • GLP-1s: A fad or here to stay?

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services

December WASDE: The last one for 2025 & USDA punts!

• USDA punts any U.S. production changes to January
• Expect more volatility and market attention next month
• Corn
  • The only change? Increase to exports 
• Soy complex
  • No changes to the U.S. soybean balance sheet
• Wheat
  • Ditto for U.S. wheat balance sheet: No changes
  • Global wheat production rose further
    • Now a 5% increase vs. 2024/25
• Sugar
  • Beet sugar production lowered, while cane increased

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Eric Thornton, VP
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist

Around the world (sugar) in 16 minutes!

• Ethanol from corn and high sugar share increasing Brazil production in 2024/25
• Global surplus pressuring world # 11 sugar prices
• When will low prices impact production?
• Missed Wednesday’s webinar on Systematic Timing Models?
  • Watch now on our IQ platform!
  • Not an IQ subscriber? Reach out to us to learn more!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist

Potential market movers for the balance of 2025

• FOMC decision on Dec. 10
• Crude oil production vs. demand
• Supreme Court ruling on Trump tariffs
• Dec. 9 WASDE
• Next Wednesday is our last webinar of 2025!
  • Procurement Timing Models: Taking the Emotion Out of Procurement
  • Wed., December 3, 11am PT / 2pm ET
  • Clients, be on the lookout for your invite, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com
• Happy Thanksgiving!

Host/Expert: Eric Thornton, VP
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management