McKeany-Flavell Hot Commodity Podcast

What are markets focusing on without USDA data?

• Corn
  • Corn yield likely falling on disappointing harvest results thus far
  • Record crop still expected north of 16 billion bushels
  • Corn exports appear to remain strong; other categories remain to be seen
• Wheat
  • U.S. wheat production increases should boost ending stocks
  • Could U.S. export demand surpass 900 million bushels?
  • Winter wheat plantings about 65% complete
  • Conditions improving in soft red winter wheat area
• Soy complex
  • Chinese soybean import demand could be hit or miss for the U.S., with or without a deal
  • Domestic soybean oil consumption soft with potential for some export demand offset
• Our next webinar is fast approaching!
  • Seasonal Market Outlook Webinar
  • Wed., October 29, 11am PT / 2pm ET
  • Clients, be on the lookout for your invite, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO 
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor

The October WASDE that wasn’t: A look at what might have been for sugar & corn

• Big question: Will the government shutdown end in time for November WASDE?
• Corn
  • Corn carry-in up
  • Yields down, but still a record
  • Harvest acres lower?
  • Future S&D risks: Feed and exports
• Sugar
  • Sugar production likely lower than September WASDE
  • Will sugar deliveries decline for a second consecutive year?
• Save the date for our next webinar!
  • Seasonal Market Outlook Webinar
  • Wed., October 29, 11am PT / 2pm ET
  • Clients, be on the lookout for your invite, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com

Host/Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management

 

Soy complex woes maybe everybody knows…

• Soybean production could be lower than expected due to late-season weather dynamics
• Soybean meal needs more homes
• Soybean oil market ambiguity continues
• Save the date for our next webinar!
  • Seasonal Market Outlook Webinar
  • Wed., October 29, 11am PT / 2pm ET
  • Clients, be on the lookout for your invite, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO 
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services

 

Corn harvest sparks the beginning of 2026 corn wet milling negotiations

• Corn futures may have already hit harvest lows
• Feed demand picks up in December
  • Could that support coproduct values through Q1 2026?
• Key to wet milling contract negotiations:
  • Understanding corn grind allocation
• Not a client on McKeany-Flavell’s IQ Intelligence Platform? Visit mckeany-flavell.com to learn more!
  • Commodity dashboards
  • Dynamic data & interactive charts
  • Analytics & calculators
  • Price forecasts
  • Downloadable data, charts, and tables
• Save the date for our next webinar!
  • Seasonal Market Outlook Webinar
  • Wed., October 29, 11am PT / 2pm ET
  • Clients, be on the lookout for your invite, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist

Weather outlook for fall 2025 & beyond

• A weak La Niña is now in the forecast
  • What does that mean for the long-range weather outlook and commodities?
• Drought in the U.S. has expanded in recent months
  • Will La Niña offer any relief?
• Watch out for the potential of planting and harvest delays in Brazil this winter
• Not a customer on McKeany-Flavell’s IQ Intelligence Platform? Visit mckeany-flavell.com to learn more about IQ, where we offer subscribers 24/7 access to
  • Real-time market updates and technical analysis
  • Discussion of supply and demand fundamentals
  • Price forecasts
  • As well as charts, tables, and downloadable PowerPoint market overviews

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor

September WASDE: What's driving prices?

• Corn
  • Domestic corn acreage increased
  • Corn yield lowered: Still too much, too soon?
  • Slow down in ethanol
• Soy Complex
  • Uptick in soybean ending stocks and slightly higher acreage
  • Upward to revision to crush
  • Where’s China?
• What's driving prices?
  • Not much in the way of change short of production adjustments for corn, soy complex, but it’s what we DON’T see in the numbers that may drive prices for corn, soybeans, and soybean oil
• Sugar
  • Beet production lowered, while cane production increased
  • Mexican imports cut in half under Suspension Agreement rules
  • Stocks-to-use still well above the target
• Next week is our Energy Market Update Webinar!
  • Wed., September 17, 11am PT / 2pm ET
  • Clients, be on the lookout for your invite, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO  
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist

Pre-heat for upcoming WASDE: Corn, soybeans & sugar outlook

• Corn
  • Corn yields should see reduction
  • 2025/26 stocks could test 2.0 billion?
• Soybeans
  • Balance sheet could get tighter on possible yield reduction
• Sugar
  • Will USDA be able to cut into sugar surplus?
  • Will the Louisiana cane crop meet record forecast of 2.154 million STRV?
  • Has recent weather cut into the 262,000 STRV increase in beet production forecast last month?
• Mark your calendar for our upcoming webinar!
  • Energy Market Update Webinar
  • Wed., September 17, 11am PT / 2pm ET
  • Clients, be on the lookout for your invite, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist

It’s Labor Day! That means fall & corn sweetener negotiations have commenced

• Where is the corn sweetener market currently in negotiation?
• Corn crop is seeing some challenges in August
  • Top-end yield expectations could be revised lower
• Co-product credit reconciliation and reporting will be a major topic of discussion
• Mark your calendar for our upcoming webinar!
  • Energy Market Update Webinar
  • Wed., September 17, 11am PT / 2pm ET
  • Clients, be on the lookout for your invite, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com

Host: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor
Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist

Checking in on corn & soybeans! A crop tour update

• Pro Farmer sees strong corn yields for much of the Belt
• Soybean pod counts well above last year for a few states
• Findings for one “I” state leave room for uncertainty
• As is often the case, regional weather dynamics may come into play for final national averages
• Not a customer on McKeany-Flavell’s IQ Intelligence Platform?
  Visit mckeany-flavell.com to learn more about IQ, where we offer subscribers 24/7 access to
  • Real-time market updates and technical analysis
  • Discussion of supply and demand fundamentals
  • Price forecasts
  • Charts, tables, and downloadable PowerPoint market overviews

Host: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services

August WASDE: Record yields in corn & sugar harvest has begun

• Sugar
  • Beet crop is looking excellent
    • Potential record yields?
  • Harvesting has begun!
  • Louisiana crop raised while Florida stays about the same
• Corn
  • Huge record on yield!
    • Due to lots of crops and good weather
  • Biggest surprise? More acreage picked up
• Soy complex
  • What corn gained, soybeans lost
  • Planted acres and exports down
• Wheat
  • More loss of acreage
  • Yield up a bit
  • Exports revised higher
• Not a customer on McKeany-Flavell’s IQ Intelligence Platform? Visit mckeany-flavell.com to learn more about IQ, where we offer subscribers 24/7 access to
  • real-time market updates and technical analysis
  • discussion of supply and demand fundamentals
  • price forecasts
  • as well as charts, tables, and downloadable PowerPoint market overviews

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
Expert: Eric Thornton, Senior Commodity Advisor