McKeany-Flavell Hot Commodity Podcast

October WASDE: As scary as the Grain Stocks report?

• Wheat
  • Ending stocks lowest since 2007/08
  • Wheat exports fall to lowest in 50 years
• Corn
  • Corn will need help from consumption
• Soy complex
  • Fingers crossed for South American soybeans!
• Sugar
  • Compared to its row crop cousins, sugar is the “quiet child”
• Make sure to register for next week’s natural gas webinar!
  • Wednesday, Oct. 19
  • Register here!

Host: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Eric Thornton, Commodity Specialist

Cocoa & the farmgate price

• Farmgate price and its increase explained
  • Benefits and incentives to the farmers
• Know the exchange rate for West African currencies?
  • Jeff does!
• Production and deliveries expectations for the upcoming year
• Weather and rain factors looking forward
• Expectations for chocolate demand

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Jeffrey Rasinski, Consultant

 

September 2022 Grain Stocks report: The gut punch edition

• Corn
  • Gut punch!
• Soy complex
  • Soybean ending stocks higher than expected
• Wheat
  • Gut punch!
  • 2022 production slashed by 133 million bushels
  • Stocks steady at 1.77 billion bushels

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Eric Thornton, Commodity Specialist

Weather, wheat, & an economic overview

• La Niña back again, causing problems for wheat
• Hurricane trouble for Florida?
• War on Ukraine still very relevant
• Global recession and impacts to the financial and commodity markets

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Eric Thornton, Commodity Specialist

Coaching clients through corn sweetener negotiation

• Higher net corn cost expected
• Higher operational costs expected by wet millers
• No relief on supply chain for many key wet-milled products
• 2023 negotiations are upon our doorstep

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist

September WASDE: It’s a shocker!

• Corn
  • Reduction in yield
  • Production shocker!
  • Disappearing acreage
• Soy complex
  • Another shocker!
  • Planted acreage & yield lowered
• Wheat
  • Little to no change: Not a shocker!
• Sugar
  • “It just doesn’t matter!”
    • Imports get the shift
    • Same tight market
  • Beet production lowered
  • High-tier imports mystery

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Sweeteners Specialist
Expert: Eric Thornton, Commodity Specialist

 

Pug asks, “What’s driving the commodity markets?”

• Four main drivers impacting commodity markets, two bullish and two bearish, but the two bull factors seemingly outweigh the bears
  • Historically low U.S. grain stocks will take time to rebuild
  • Global energy market disruption raising fuel and fertilizer input cost
  • Inflation causing central banks to raise rates despite the prospects of a global recession
  • No substitute for the U.S. dollar as global reserve currency

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Risk Management

Sugar market landscape heading into September WASDE

• Beet harvest underway in RRV and Michigan
• Looking for good sugar content data
• Beet marketers remain on the sideline
• September 12 WASDE to show lower Mexico imports?

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Sweeteners Specialist

The dairy market: Is the glass half full or half empty?

• After major revisions last month, what did the July milk production report reveal about the herd at the end of July?
• Is the herd continuing to expand and how has milk yield been trending YTD?
• With the flush now over, a review of total milk output and inventories of some key dairy ingredients

Host: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist
Expert: Jeffrey Rasinski, Consultant

What’s next for the sugar market?

• Will sugar beet marketers have additional sugar to market?
• What’s with the massive reduction in projected high-tier sugar?
• Drought in Northeast Mexico reducing production prospects
• Will the sale of Imperial Sugar ever happen?

Host/Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist