McKeany-Flavell Hot Commodity Podcast

Coaching clients through corn sweetener negotiation

• Higher net corn cost expected
• Higher operational costs expected by wet millers
• No relief on supply chain for many key wet-milled products
• 2023 negotiations are upon our doorstep

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist

September WASDE: It’s a shocker!

• Corn
  • Reduction in yield
  • Production shocker!
  • Disappearing acreage
• Soy complex
  • Another shocker!
  • Planted acreage & yield lowered
• Wheat
  • Little to no change: Not a shocker!
• Sugar
  • “It just doesn’t matter!”
    • Imports get the shift
    • Same tight market
  • Beet production lowered
  • High-tier imports mystery

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Sweeteners Specialist
Expert: Eric Thornton, Commodity Specialist

 

Pug asks, “What’s driving the commodity markets?”

• Four main drivers impacting commodity markets, two bullish and two bearish, but the two bull factors seemingly outweigh the bears
  • Historically low U.S. grain stocks will take time to rebuild
  • Global energy market disruption raising fuel and fertilizer input cost
  • Inflation causing central banks to raise rates despite the prospects of a global recession
  • No substitute for the U.S. dollar as global reserve currency

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Risk Management

Sugar market landscape heading into September WASDE

• Beet harvest underway in RRV and Michigan
• Looking for good sugar content data
• Beet marketers remain on the sideline
• September 12 WASDE to show lower Mexico imports?

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Sweeteners Specialist

The dairy market: Is the glass half full or half empty?

• After major revisions last month, what did the July milk production report reveal about the herd at the end of July?
• Is the herd continuing to expand and how has milk yield been trending YTD?
• With the flush now over, a review of total milk output and inventories of some key dairy ingredients

Host: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist
Expert: Jeffrey Rasinski, Consultant

What’s next for the sugar market?

• Will sugar beet marketers have additional sugar to market?
• What’s with the massive reduction in projected high-tier sugar?
• Drought in Northeast Mexico reducing production prospects
• Will the sale of Imperial Sugar ever happen?

Host/Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist

 

August WASDE: King-sized wrap up

• How did acreage shake out for wheat, corn, and soybeans?
• Wheat
  • U.S. wheat demand increases 31 million bushels
  • Record large global wheat production, but stocks remain unchanged
• Corn/soy complex
  • Corn yields lowered, but soybean yields increase: Interesting!
• Sugar
  • Sizeable increase for beet sugar production

Host: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Eric Thornton, Commodity Specialist

Recapping the 37th ASA International Sweetener Symposium

• Sustainability and transparency becoming everyday language
• Craig and Eric discuss the upcoming farm bill
• Are there concerns about the beet and cane crops?
• Spot sugar remains almost nonexistent

Host: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist
Expert: Eric Thornton, Commodity Specialist

Uh oh… The soy complex is at it again!

• What’s driving the move higher on soybeans?
• Another bullish run for soybean oil?
• How will consumption/policy play into the 2022/23 balance sheets?

Host: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Sweeteners Specialist
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services

What sparked the recent sell-off in commodity markets?

• Russia and Ukraine agree to open grain corridor through Black Sea
  • Could see as much as 5 MMT of grain flowing out of three major ports in the next few weeks
• Crop conditions near long-term averages, but supply is still a significant concern even in the most optimistic forecasts
• Federal Reserve triggered commodity long liquidations
  • Will it turn to short selling?
• Be extra cautious licking the last drops of milk from a can!
• For more information on our Risk Management services visit mckeany-flavell.com.

Host: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Risk Management