McKeany-Flavell Hot Commodity Podcast

Energy year-end review

• Natural gas
  • A busy year for natural gas!
    • Final activation halted on Russian Nord Stream 2 pipeline
    • Russian exports of gas on Nord Stream 1 pipeline a no-go
    • Explosion at Freeport, TX LNG facility
  • EIA inventories continue to lag both 2021 levels and five-year average
  • What to watch for in 2023:
    • Winter weather and drawdown in inventory
    • Ukraine, China's re-opening, and potential recession
• Crude oil
  • Average price of crude oil 39% above 2021
  • Record-high gasoline and diesel prices last June
  • Global crude demand to slow but could be offset by China and SPR

• Be on the lookout for your invite to our upcoming Risk Management webinar!
  • Wednesday, January 25
• McKeany-Flavell’s Spring Market Seminar is happening on April 26, 2023!
  • Mark your calendars, registration opens in January!
• Happy New Year!

Host/Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Risk Management
Expert: Jeffrey Rasinski, Consultant

Holiday fun with Shawn & Nicole!

• Special holiday message from President & CEO Michael Caughlan
• Reindeer games and holiday movie trivia!
• Sit back with a warm cup of cocoa and enjoy
• Happy Holidays to all!

Host: Shawn Bingham, Director of Risk Management
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services

Loading sequence for 2023! How 2022 shaped the outlook for the new year

• Dairy
  • Herd size fluctuations
  • Price volatility looks to calm
• Economy & energy
  • Stock market will look better than 2022
  • No big drops to energy due to plentiful reserves
• Sugar
  • Weather concerns for the #11 crop
  • Expect great #16 crops from Louisiana and Florida
  • Beet crops will be planted on time!
• Corn
  • Acreage will compete once again with soybeans
  • Prices releasing by Q4?
• Wheat
  • Increase in production for U.S.
  • Decrease on the global front
• Edible oils
  • Optimism once we get through Q1
  • Prices should equalize between soybean oil and canola oil
• McKeany-Flavell’s Spring Seminar coming April 26, 2023!
  • Mark your calendars
  • Registration opens in January
• Happy Holidays!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Jeffrey Rasinski, Consultant
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Risk Management
Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist
Expert: Eric Thornton, Commodity Specialist
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services

 

December WASDE: Not a creature was stirring…

• Wheat
  • Minimal changes for wheat
  • Argentina’s wheat crop now 45 percent below last year
• Corn & soy complex
  • Minimal changes for both
• Sugar
  • Beet sugar production lowered 67,000 STRV
  • Cane production increased 20,000 STRV

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Eric Thornton, Commodity Specialist
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist

Baking season is upon us!

• Congress to intervene and keep railroads operating
• Beet crop concerns lead to tight S&D and higher prices
• Plenty of raw sugar, but limitations on refining capabilities
• Plantings for 2023/24: Will farmers plant fewer sugar beets?
• Don’t miss Craig speaking at the 2022 Sosland Publishing Winter Webinar!
  • Next Wednesday, Dec. 7
  • Register here!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist

Thanksgiving fun with markets & movies!

Nicole splices your favorite commodity markets with her favorite movies by the "Master of Suspense," Alfred Hitchcock.

 

Play your role and guess which market goes with which movie as she takes you on a thrilling journey.

 

Happy Thanksgiving!

 

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services

Inflation Station: The interest rate express train rolls on

• The Fed’s Bullard suggests rates may have to rise to as much as 7% to sufficiently cool inflation
• CPI and PPI recently surprised a bit lower but remain well above the Fed’s comfort zone
• The Treasury curve reacted to the news by inverting further, which increases the likelihood of a deeper, longer recession than the short version we just came out of
• The silver lining (or cotton candy in this case) should be lower crude and crude refined product values that should lend a headwind to corn and soybean oil
• And save the date!
  • 2023 Spring Market Seminar: Acting with an award-winning script
  • Wednesday, April 26, 2023
  • Oakbrook, IL

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Risk Management

 

A thankfully quiet November WASDE

• Corn & soy complex
  • Modest increases to corn, soybean ending stocks
  • USDA still firming soybean oil consumption for 2021/22
• Wheat
  • U.S./global wheat stocks see minimal adjustments
• Sugar
  • Beet production lowered a net 33,000 STRV
  • Cane production lowered a net 17,000 STRV
  • Imports from Mexico lowered 194,000 STRV
• Register now for our Fall Market Outlook webinar!
  • Wednesday, November 16
  • Register here!

Host/Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Sweeteners Specialist
Expert: Eric Thornton, Commodity Specialist

Sugar: Looking for the win!

• Beet production update
  • Yields below average
  • Drier weather helping with sugar content
• Will demand soften in 2023?
  • A head scratcher!
• Register now for our Fall Market Outlook webinar!
  • Wednesday, November 16
  • Register here!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist

Live from ABLC Next 2022!

• New technologies to reduce carbon emissions
  
• CPGs look to be net carbon zero by 2050
  
• Investment in infrastructure and agricultural practices
  
• Effect on wet milling industry and pricing for starch, dextrose, glucose, and high fructose
  
• Make sure to register for Fall Market Outlook webinar!
  • Wednesday, Nov. 9, 2022
    
  • Register here!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist